How will we save the regions?

New Zealand is becoming a lopsided country. The overall population is growing and the cities are booming. But researchers say that many of the regions and small towns that make up the New Zealand heartland are facing a future of decline.

This is a problem that is not fully understood, and has not been adequately addressed by government policy. It is to be hoped that the new Government will come up with effective solutions.

Awareness of tough times in the heartland bubbles to the surface occasionally in the anecdotal news stories that show all is not well there – the one about Kaitangata offering house and land packages to attract families; the one about the $150,000-a-year tourism job in Taumarunui that no-one wanted.

But most headlines are generally focused on the other side of the problem – Auckland’s traffic gridlock, the rising costs of housing in the cities, and the apparent end of the Kiwi home-owning dream as city property values spiral upwards.

However, forecasting by demographics professor Natalie Jackson predicts that the populations of 44 out of 67 territorial authorities will either stop growing or start to decline over the next 30 years – all of them outside the major urban centres.

Jackson’s analysis was contained in a report from the Right-wing-oriented Maxim Institute. It echoes, however, Statistics NZ’S forecasts, which suggest 15 rural territorial authorities, mainly in the lower North Island, will lose population.

The cities are charging ahead. Auckland’s population has grown from 1.39 million to 1.66m over the last decade. Wellington’s has risen from 469,000 to 514,000. Canterbury, including Christchurch, has gone up from 547,000 to 612,000.

But regions such as Manawatu¯ and Whanganui, Gisborne and West Coast have been lagging behind the national average for years – both in economic activity and population growth.

So far, they have managed to keep inching ahead, for the most part.

What is different about forecasts such as Jackson’s is that they foresee regions going into reverse.

Perhaps salvation is at hand in the form of the $1 billion-a-year regional development fund negotiated as part of the coalition agreement between Labour and NZ First. But that raises the question – is $1b enough?

The new Regional Development Minister, Shane Jones, has already said there is an ‘‘infinite number’’ of projects that could be funded to boost the regions, and he has been getting calls from regional leaders all over New Zealand.

The difficulties will not be fixed by multiple one-off handouts. It is not that simple. New Zealand’s regional problems require a co-ordinated national solution.