The All Blacks have a cunning plan
Attempting to connect the selection dots ahead of a Rugby World Cup is an exercise fraught with danger.
Injuries, contracts with overseas clubs (anyone remember what happened with Charles Piutau in 2015?), shonky form and the sudden arrival of showstopping talent can force the All Blacks selectors to alter their plans ahead of a global tournament.
Given less than 14 months remain until the All Blacks meet the Springboks in their opening World Cup pool B game in Japan, it’s timely to start trying to figure out who may, or may not, feature in the event.
It’s best to start with what we already know, and work back from there.
On Monday All Blacks coach Steve Hansen revealed his 33-man squad for the Rugby Championship.
Past history proves it would be nonsense to interpret these selections as being cast in iron for the World Cup. But, clearly, the selection panel of Ian Foster, Grant Fox and Hansen are tightening the net around potential starters for the defence of the Webb Ellis Cup.
This is what we know so far.
Halfbacks for hire
Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi continues to be favoured as the third halfback behind Aaron Smith and TJ Perenara.
If all goes to plan Tahuriorangi has the inside running ahead of Augustine Pulu, Brad Weber, Bryn Hall and Mitchell Drummond ahead of the World Cup. That’s if the selectors don’t lean towards picking just two halfbacks.
It’s a tough time to be a fringe lock
Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick are certainties, subject to fitness, for the Japan trip next year. On current form you couldn’t go past Scott Barrett, either.
That makes three: which was how many locks were included in the last World Cup squad.
It’s not much of a picnic at blindside flanker, either
The pig-hunter called ‘Squid’, known to many as Liam Squire, has owned the No 6 jersey since Jerome Kaino declared he was off to the Toulon club in France.
Squire’s cohorts at the Highlanders, Shannon Frizell and Hemopo, are banking up to have a shot at the position, and the latter pair could get a starter’s number against Argentina in Nelson and Buenos Aires.
The Crusaders’ Jordan Taufua, who broke his arm in the Super Rugby semifinal, was selected for the French series in June but was ruled out with a calf strain. His time is expected to come again.
Luke Whitelock, who started all three tests against France while No 8 and captain Kieran Read recovered from spinal surgery, can also cover blindside flanker.
Don’t forget Vaea Fifita
Fifita, who played seven tests last year, is lacking confidence says Hansen. A lock for the Hurricanes, Fifita has been omitted from the Rugby Championship squad and will continue to do his apprenticeship at No 6 for Wellington – the position he will play at during tests, if given another shot.
Hansen indicated Fifita, if he can put in some strong performances at blindside flanker presumably, could be back for the northern tour of Japan and Europe later in the year.
It’s a similar story for Hurricanes second five-eighth Ngani Laumape.
The Akira Ioane question
Loose forward Ioane’s sole appearance for the All Blacks was as a substitute against a French XV in Lyon in November.
Hansen and co invited Ioane to train with the test squad during the French series, and have now released him to Auckland. Fast, big and capable of doing a lot with the ball, Ioane had a confidential conversation with Hansen about what he must happen if he’s to prove to the national selectors that he deserves a recall.
What becomes of those who yearn for the yen?
Crusaders No 7 Matt Todd and fullback/wing Israel Dagg will skip the Mitre 10 Cup to play for Japanese clubs before returning for the Super Rugby pre-season. Todd, if Sam Cane or Ardie Savea suffer serious injuries ahead of the World Cup, is at short odds to attend his first tournament.
Dagg’s job could be tougher. The talent just keeps loading-up in the back three.
Will the selectors heed Ronan O’gara’s advice and shift Beauden Barrett to fullback to have Richie Mo’unga at first five-eighth?
It’s a good conversation starter, but don’t go putting a wager on it happening any time soon.
The All Blacks have invested more time in Damian Mckenzie, a chap capable of playing at fullback and he was pretty good at first-five in the third test against the French in Dunedin. Expect him to be on the bench in the test against the Wallabies next weekend, with Barrett wearing No 10. Mo’unga’s time will come.