National could govern on latest poll

National has the numbers to govern, but only just, according to a new poll.

The One News/colmar Brunton poll has National’s party vote at 46 per cent, enough to govern with the Act party, which polled 2 per cent. It’s the second time in a row the poll has predicted a National-led Government.

Labour is on 39 per cent and the Greens polled 7 per cent, while NZ First were at just 4 per cent, which would see them crash out of Parliament.

The poll was conducted between November 23 and 27, after Stuff published details of NZ First’s fundraising, but before Labour’s party conference in Whanganui at the weekend. National would have 59 seats on these numbers, with ACT bringing in two MPS, providing David Seymour wins his Epsom seat. Labour would win 50 seats while the Greens would win 9.

The numbers are remarkably unchanged from the last TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll. Labour and National both fell one percentage point, while ACT gained one point. The Greens and NZ

First remained consistent.

Jacinda Ardern remains ahead in the preferred Prime Minister polling, on 36 per cent, down 2 points from the last TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll. Simon Bridges is at 10 per cent, down 1 percentage point. Judith Collins and Winston Peters are each down one point, at 4 and 3 per cent respectively.

National’s polling is quite different to a Stuff/yougov poll conducted earlier in the month. That poll, which was held between November 7 and 11 had Labour out in front with 41 per cent support, while National was at 38 per cent.