US expert: Vaccine ‘this year’
The United States’ leading Covid-19 expert is ‘‘cautiously optimistic’’ that a safe and effective vaccine may arrive sooner than many predicted.
‘‘We project that we will know whether we have a safe and effective vaccine likely by the end of this calendar year,’’ Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told former prime minister Helen Clark.
‘‘I would predict November and December. It could possibly be earlier – I think that’s unlikely but not impossible.’’
But ensuring equitable distribution and access around the world will present one of the greatest challenges.
The US has already allocated funds to produce doses in preparation for a successful vaccine. This puts the US months ahead of many countries, including New Zealand.
Fauci told Clark and interviewer Linda Clark during a virtual discussion hosted by the Aspen Institute of New Zealand that the financial risks associated with preparations were worth taking.
‘‘If the vaccine works you’ve saved multiple months; if it doesn’t work you’ve lost a lot of money. It’s felt that it’s worth the risk of the money,’’ he said.
In the US, a vaccine could start being released to those classified as more vulnerable – the elderly, those with pre-existing medical conditions and healthcare workers – almost immediately.
But when could it reach New Zealand? And what about poorer countries?
Clark agreed with the need to help vulnerable populations first, but hoped it would be done on a global scale.
She highlighted India – which has been flagged as a Covid-19 hot spot and has recorded more than 6.3 million cases – as one country that could simply miss out if there was no equitable distribution agreement in place.
This is a goal all countries needed to strive for on the basis of moral responsibility and enlightened self-interest, Fauci said. ‘‘If you don’t do that, this virus will continue to be around and it will continue to essentially threaten us.’’
New Zealand has already made strides here and signed a $27 million agreement to guarantee Covid-19 vaccines from the global Covax facility for half of the population.
Over 36 years, Fauci has seen numerous outbreaks and pandemics. He’s aware countries don’t always work together, but was hopeful things might be different following this pandemic.
‘‘I’ve been through multiple outbreaks because that’s my choice in life, that’s my career, my profession – going back from the early days of HIV, through the flu pandemics, Zika, Ebola, Chikungunya, West Nile virus ...
‘‘To get someone to be preparing for something that hasn’t happened is very, very difficult. So I hope we develop this corporate memory that doesn’t disappear a year or two or three from now, and that we do remember the terrible ordeal that we’re all going through right now.
‘‘This truly is historic – historic in its health implications and historic in its economic implications.’’
Before Sars-cov-2 emerged, Fauci had never seen a virus with such a wide breadth of symptoms and manifestations.
The realisation that a significant portion of infected people can present no symptoms was one of the most challenging lessons.
Clark is leading a review of the World Health Organisation’s response to the pandemic, alongside former Liberian president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.
Clark noted the effectiveness of New Zealand’s ‘‘team of 5 million’’ being along for the journey. In comparison, looking at the response in the US, a division had clearly formed.
‘‘People are very engaged in wanting to be part of the solution,’’ Clark said of New Zealanders.
Fauci assigned the struggles in the US to his country’s multi-layered system of government and to Americans’ independent nature.
‘‘If you have a strong adherence to a central directive, you do much better. You do much better,’’ Fauci said.