The pandemic’s impact is growing

At the root of every pandemic is an encounter between a disease-causing microorganism and a human being . . . It is a social phenomenon as much as it is a biological one,’’ writes Laura Spinney in her book Pale Rider, arguing that Spanish flu ‘‘pushed India closer to independence, South Africa closer to apartheid, and Switzerland to the brink of civil war’’.

It will be a long time before we, or our descendants, can fully assess Covid’s impact. But its social and political effects are emerging more clearly. It has played a role in extraordinary turmoil in places from Colombia to Cuba to South Africa, exacerbating poverty and frustration.

Academic studies suggest that disease outbreaks may initially suppress social disturbances, by limiting contact, but encourage it in the longer term. Scholars analysed major epidemics from the Black Death onwards, concluding that in all but four cases revolts were clearly connected to the outbreaks. They suggested that factors included increased inequality, the impact of disease control policies (and the exploitation of the crisis for increased repression), and the tendency for the psychological shock to lead to people adopting irrational beliefs about the outbreak’s origins, encouraging social or racial discrimination.

The international effects of the pandemic will continue to hit our economic wellbeing. Protecting others is the right thing to do. It is also the best way to protect ourselves.