Russia could be aiming for a land bridge too far
Russia lacks the firepower to create a land bridge to the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova, and is wary of moving ships closer to Ukraine’s coast because it fears attacks, according to Western officials.
Tensions are rising in the unrecognised region, which borders southwest Ukraine and is under the control of pro-Moscow officials, raising fears that the conflict may be spreading. The region has reported a series of explosions in recent days, which it has called ‘‘terrorist attacks’’, leading Kyiv to accuse Moscow of seeking to expand the war further into Europe.
Western officials believe that Russia’s long-term objective could be to create a land bridge along Ukraine’s coast to Transnistria, cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea. However, one official said joining up with Transnistria risked ‘‘overextending Russian supply lines and their capabilities once again’’, and would involve Russia taking the heavily defended city of Odesa.
‘‘The Russians would need ... land forces progressing down to Odesa and ideally link up with amphibious forces coming from the coast.’’
Odesa, Ukraine’s biggest port, would be a ‘‘tough target’’, the official said, with the Ukrainians having taken full advantage of Russia’s slow progress to build up reserves and capabilities. The sinking of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva this month meant the Russian navy was ‘‘wary of approaching the coastline for fear of a subsequent attack’’.
The Russians have achieved their early objective of creating a land bridge from Russia to Crimea, with the exception of a small band of Ukrainian troops who are holding out in Mariupol. Fighters from the 36th Marine Brigade and the Azov Battalion are still trying to defend the Azovstal steel plant – the last part of the city not under Russian control – after weeks of fighting. There are hundreds of civilians holed up in the factory.
■ The two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine are to hold referendums on becoming part of Russia next month, according to Kremlin sources.
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) broke away from Ukraine with Russian support in the aftermath of the Maidan revolution in 2014. Russia recognised the DPR and LPR as independent states on February 21 this year, three days before the invasion.
The two republics would vote on whether to join Russia on May 14 and 15, three sources close to President Vladimir Putin told Meduza, an independent Russianlanguage news website. There would also be a referendum in Kherson, southern Ukraine, to decide if the occupied region should be become independent, the publication reported.
The referendums on joining Russia had been due to take place in April, but the date was moved because Russian forces had not made sufficient headway into Ukrainian territory, the sources said. They said many within the Kremlin were against annexation of the two republics, describing them as depressed regions, but annexation was a ‘‘personal desire’’ of Putin’s.
■ United States Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm says Russia’s war on Ukraine ‘‘screams’’ that the world needs to stop importing oil and gas from Russia and instead move towards other forms of energy.
At an international forum on offshore wind energy in Atlantic City, Granholm said the US and as its energy industries were ‘‘on a war footing’’, and called for a rapid acceleration of renewable energy, including offshore wind power.
Her comments were echoed by European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson, who noted that Europe recently committed itself to a large-scale move away from Russian fossil fuel imports.
Russia yesterday cut off natural gas supplies to Nato members Poland and Bulgaria after they refused to pay in roubles, and threatened to do the same to other countries, dramatically escalating its standoff with the West over the war in Ukraine. European leaders decried the move as ‘‘blackmail’’.
However, Hungary and Slovakia were preparing to use a workaround scheme that would allow them to pay for Russian gas in euros while also fulfilling Moscow’s demands.
Germany and Italy are among Europe’s biggest consumers of Russian natural gas, but have already been taking steps to reduce their dependence on Moscow.
Simson cited a plan adopted last month that calls for more liquid natural gas and traditional pipeline imports from nations other than Russia; doubling sustainable production of biomethane; and increasing the production and importation of renewable hydrogen. That policy is to work in tandem with existing renewable energy industries including solar and wind. It aims to replace two-thirds of the amount of natural gas the European Union imports from Russia by the end of the year.
■ Fighting has continued in eastern Ukraine along a largely static front line some 480km long. One person was killed and at least two were injured when rockets hit a residential neighbourhood in Kharkiv yesterday.
Western officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence findings, said Russia had made slow progress in the Donbas region, with ‘‘minor gains’’, including the capture of villages and small towns south of Izyum and on the outskirts of Rubizhne.
Just across the border in Russia, an ammunition depot in the Belgorod region burned after several explosions were heard, the governor said. Blasts were also reported in Russia’s Kursk region near the border. Earlier this week, an oil storage facility in the Russian city of Bryansk was engulfed by fire.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak hinted at the country’s involvement in the fires, saying in a Telegram post that ‘‘karma (is) a harsh thing’’. – The Times, AP, Telegraph Group