Shadow of war leads to rethink on draft

Thirteen years ago, a young German opposition MP called Lars Klingbeil took the floor in the Bundestag and hailed the decision to end more than half a century of conscription as a “great social and political step in Germany”.

Although he was the son of a soldier, Klingbeil had refused the draft on moral grounds in the mid-1990s, the peak years of German anti-militarism. In a world that was getting ever faster and more globally integrated, he said, there was no longer any danger of a conventional military attack on Germany or its allies.

Those words now seem to belong to a lost age of innocence. This week Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, is expected to receive a report on the options for a possible revival of compulsory military service as part of a broader drive to make the country “ready for war”.

Germany is by no means the only European country galvanised into reconsidering its position by Russia's aggression in Ukraine. In January, Admiral Rob Bauer, the Dutch chairman of Nato’s military committee, said the alliance had to prepare for a “whole of society” effort against the prospect of a direct Russian attack on its territory within 20 years.

Last week Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, warned that Europe had entered a phase reminiscent of the months before World War II broke out. “We have to get used to the fact that a new era has begun: the pre-war period,” he said.

Urging greater readiness, he cited the shift in attitudes in Berlin as grounds for optimism that Europe had woken up to the threat from Moscow. “Luckily, we can already see a real revolution in the European mentality,” he said. “The most important thing is that no-one questions the need for collective defence any more. Look at Germany: a massive turnaround has taken place there.”

Poland has not yet introduced conscription, but calls up as many as 200,000 volunteers a year for military exercises.

This month, Denmark announced that it would include women among the 5000 conscripts it plans to call up each year from 2026.

The Baltic States are particularly wary. This year Latvia revived the draft, which had been abolished in 2006, as it aims to double the size of its professional and reserve forces to 61,000 troops by 2032.

Lithuania, which revived conscription in 2015, the year after Russia first invaded Ukraine, is now preparing to shorten the minimum term from nine months to six in an effort to ensure that more young men get military training.

This year Estonia made “defence education” a compulsory subject for all 16 and 17-year-olds, who learn basic survival skills that might be necessary in a land war.

Raik said Estonia had learnt much from neighbouring Finland, which has more or less continuously maintained male conscription for more than a century, under the shadow of two wars against the Soviet Union. As a result the Finnish defence forces can bolster their wartime strength of 280,000 by calling up as many as 900,000 reservists.

“This kind of preparedness is embedded in our thinking,” said one retired Finnish general. “There's a two-year queue to get in. It’s the highest status. Everyone wants to have the symbol to pin on their jacket.”