What will Israel do after attack?
Iran’s massive attack, which included hundreds of drones as well as missiles, according to state TV, was an unprecedented escalation in this conflict – and it could be grounds for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare war on the Islamic Republic.
Netanyahu’s next moves will probably hinge above all on how damaging the weekend attack proves to be and what has been targeted by Iranian leaders.
A crucial factor in terms of what could happen next is the extent to which Israel and its allies can intercept drones and any missiles before they hit their targets.
If only a small number of drones or missiles were to slip past Israeli air defences and hit a few military targets, perhaps bases in the sparsely populated north, this may allow Iran to feel it has made its point without plunging the entire region into war.
The fact that Iran seems to have launched the drones from its own territory is a very serious escalation, but this move also will have allowed plenty of time for Israel and its allies to intercept them.
Such a scenario may be within the limits of what Netanyahu is prepared to tolerate at this stage: he presumably thought carefully about the probable consequences of launching last week’s consulate attack in Damascus – the cause for Iran’s retaliation on Saturday – before he approved it.
This might have been precisely what Tehran was aiming for: a bold, choreographed attack that it can claim has restored deterrence against Israel but that stops short of triggering all-out war with Israel.
Or Netanyahu may launch an in-kind response in which Israel carries out air strikes on targets in Iran, similar to those which may be in the firing line in Israel, such as military bases or government buildings.
Other obvious options for Israeli retaliation would be air strikes on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters or its bases around Iran. At that point, the two sides might cease hostilities, with both feeling they have made their stand.
The much more alarming scenario is one where a combination of Iranian drones and missiles overwhelm Israeli missile defences, killing and injuring large numbers of people in cities such as Tel Aviv, which hosts the Kirya, the Israeli military headquarters.
In that scenario it is difficult to see how Netanyahu could avoid taking much more drastic action in response.
There remains a grim possibility of fullscale war between Iran and Israel, a nightmare scenario that would carry enormous cost to human life on both sides and probably drag the United States – and potentially Britain – into the fray.
Another key factor is Iran’s nuclear programme, which Israel has been working for years to dismantle via covert strikes. This new crisis might prove an opportunity to destroy the entire nuclear programme.
There are a few reasons to doubt Iran truly wants war with Israel. Experts say it would be ill-prepared militarily for such a war and is already under crippling Western sanctions. There is also massive internal opposition to the Iranian regime, as reflected in 2022’s enormous protest movement.
But something feels very different about this attack: it was reportedly launched directly from Iranian territory and, the regime claims, includes missiles, not just drones. This arguably does not fit the pattern of Iran’s previous conduct, in which it has launched covert attacks on Israel or relied on regional proxies to do its bidding.
That means Israel – and the West – is now in uncharted and extraordinarily dangerous territory.