Get set for a scorching summer

After months of frequent heavy rain, scorching temperatures and dry spells are expected this summer according to Niwa’s latest seasonal climate outlook.

More sub-tropical northeast winds may cause more hot days, where the temperature is above 25C, for western and inland places. At the same time, a decrease in northwest winds may result in fewer hot days in the east.

Niwa reported that summer temperatures were likely to sit near or above average across the east of the country, but were very likely to be above average in the north and west.

The upper South Island was most likely to see higher temperatures than average.

Despite the warm weather, parts of the country might be in store for more frequent rain. Niwa predicted that rainfall was equally as likely to sit around normal levels or exceed normal levels across the upper North Island and the east of the country.

For the rest of the country, normal levels of rainfall were expected, except for the western South Island where below average rainfall was predicted.

There was also a chance of droughts and dryness across much of the country, but particularly in Otago, Southland and the West Coast. Niwa said a prolonged dry spell

was possible between mid-December and early January thanks to a period of high pressure.

Niwa reported that an ongoing marine heatwave that developed in the waters around New

Zealand was set to influence the summer climate. Sea surface temperatures sat between 1.1-1.7C above average in November.

Marine heatwave conditions were likely to continue through summer and even possibly into autumn, and may strengthen in late-December.

Warmer seas may act as fuel for tropical cyclones and lead to long bursts of heavy rain. Rising ocean temperatures can also have widespread detrimental effects on marine life.