Marlborough Express - Weekend Express
Still some unknowns in election result
Paradoxically, New Zealand has voted for change, while leaving one key issue hanging in the air.
Namely, will NZ First leader Winston Peters be a “nice to have” addition in future — or will his presence be a “need to have” so that the new government can get its agenda through Parliament over the next three years?
On election night, incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon claimed that National could achieve a coalition solely in tandem with the ACT party. Currently, National/ACT does have a governing majority, but only by the merest whisker.
Historically, special votes and overseas votes favour the centre-left. This year, the specials and offshore votes comprise a whopping 20% of the overall total, and these are not scheduled to be finalised until November 3, causing potentially significant delays in the post-election negotiations.
The final tally could also give National added reason to reach out to NZ First.
The horse-trading over policy and the baubles of office will add to the desirability of having Peters inside the tent in some capacity. No doubt, Peters will extract a price for any “help” he provides that enables the Luxon-led government to pass its parliamentary programme.
National and ACT won the big prize, but Labour, aside, everyone else had reason to celebrate.
NZ First crossed the MMP threshold and as indicated, will probably play a significant role in government formation. Te Pāti Māori won seats from Labour, with possibly more to come on the specials. The Greens won a record number of electorate victories, although their 11% party vote (while a record for them) was less than the 14-15% briefly promised by the pollsters.
The maxim that elections are won and lost in Auckland was proven to be the case once again. Traditional red seats such as Mt Roskill, New Lynn, Te Atatu, Mt Albert and so on were either lost or retained only on a knife edge. In Auckland in particular, law and order concerns and lingering resentments over the second Covid lockdown came home to roost.
Strikingly, Wellington went Green with big wins in former Labour strongholds such as Welington Central and Rongotai.
Ironically, Labour’s massive loss of electorate seats means that a large number of its list candidates will be elected. This will enable the generation of possible future leaders (e.g. Kieran McAnulty) to retain a future in politics.
How long will Chris Hipkins remain as Labour leader? Hipkins has presided over a shattering defeat comparable to the one National endured in 2002. On that occasion, Bill English stayed on for 16 months afterwards.
While Hipkins is liked personally, it is impossible to imagine him leading Labour into the next election.
For pragmatic reasons, National may have to grit its teeth and find positive reasons for having NZ First on board during the next three years. One immediate stumbling block in the upcoming negotiations will be the referendum on Treaty principles that ACT says is its bottom line, and which Luxon has already ruled out.
Perhaps some sop — a constitutional working party on re-evaluating Treaty principles? — would be enough to salve ACT’s hurt feelings. Inevitably, change doesn’t entirely remove the need for those kind of compromises.