Dunne deal is a clever move from the Left

Youngsters might find this hard to believe, but New Zealand has not always produced reliable, worldbeating rugby teams.

We children of the late 90s and early 2000s will always bear the scars of growing up in an era where the All Blacks were consistent losers.

One lowlight was the All Blacks losing to the Wallabies in Dunedin in 2001. It was the first and only time Australia beat us at Carisbrook.

It was all the more bitter for some poor strategic thinking on the part of the All Blacks.

After the fulltime hooter sounded, a penalty was awarded against Australia. However, the Wallabies were ahead by eight points, which meant victory was impossible.

However, if the All Blacks kicked a goal then they would have received a Tri-Nations bonus point for their troubles. Instead, they ran the ball and duly knocked it on, ending the game with no competition points.

It was a dumb play. As former captain Wayne Shelford said at the time, ‘‘It’s a tournament trophy and every competition point counts’’ and, ‘‘You take every point you can, even if you are going to lose’’.

Labour and the Greens are not going to make the same mistake when it comes to Ohariu this year. Peter Dunne, who leads something called United Future, holds the seat with a razor-thin margin of 710.

Looking to take him out is former Police Association boss Greg O’Connor, who is standing for Labour.

In 2014, the Greens stood Tane Woodley, who won 2764 votes. This year, they will not stand anyone. This decision has clearly been made in the expectation that former Woodley voters will switch to O’Connor, leading to Dunne’s downfall.

It’s hardly a foregone conclusion. O’Connor is an excellent communicator with name recognition but is untested in local elections. He may discover retail politics is harder than it looks.

Furthermore, the Government will continue to tacitly endorse Dunne and there will be an effort to move more National voters into his column.

Nevertheless, this is a smart play for the Greens. They have no chance of winning the seat but, if O’Connor does, National may find it hard to hold on to power since Dunne has supplied them with crucial support over the last term.

Since changing the Government seems to be the first priority of the Green Party these days, this would be a pretty good bonus point for it to walk away with.

There are only two potential downsides. The first is the FIRING LINE possibility that the party may lose, at most, a few thousand Ohariu party votes through having a smaller local profile during the campaign.

The second is the accusation that it has entered into what TV commentator Patrick Gower calls a ‘‘dirty deal’’ with Labour to manipulate the election result.

This may be hard for the Greens to take since they are used to receiving soft treatment from the media. Nevertheless, such criticism should not trouble them unduly.

After all, the tactic is not an entirely new one. Electorate deals have been a feature of most MMP elections. National ceded Wellington Central to ACT in 1996.

In 1999, Labour did the same for the Greens in Coromandel. Labour never tried very hard to win Wigram after making peace with Jim Anderton and National hasn’t tried to oust ACT from Epsom since 2008.

And, of course, Ohariu itself has been a kind of National Party protectorate ever since Don Brash and Peter Dunne had that first cup of tea together in 2005.

Voters have never been particularly bothered.

What Labour and the Greens are doing this time is a bit more blatant. It is more usual for the conceding party to continue standing their own candidate and to rely on voters taking the hint.

But it’s not unprecedented for the party to withdrawal altogether. National gave ACT’s Richard Prebble a clear run at Wellington Central in 1999 (though he still lost). MMPis complicated and, like all complicated things, it is open to manipulation.

Countries with similar electoral systems have seen parties go as far as dividing themselves in two, with one party contesting the party vote and another only contesting electorates. This can create an enormous overhang effect that benefits the combined bloc.

In 2007, for example, Lesotho’s governing party created a second, puppet party for just this purpose. Together, they captured almost 70 per cent of the seats despite winning just over half the vote.

I don’t think we will ever see that in New Zealand, but we may move further in that direction. For example, what’s to stop National creating another Centre-Right overhang seat by conceding a second safe seat to its trusted allies in ACT?

Elections under MMPwill always be close and, in a close competition, you have to take every point you can.