Inside Jacinda Ardern’s bloodless coup
It was early the week before last when Labour MPs started seriously sweating over some dreadful internal polling.
In it came; shock, horror, collapse, Labour slumped to 23 per cent.
At that level, a pile of MPs were staring at unemployment and their fat salaries were looking like a fine but distant memory. The dole queue certainly focuses the mind.
Many of these MPs have wandered aimlessly around the soul-destroying opposition echo chamber for years – the outside world isn’t lining up to employ them.
Even Labour leader Andrew Little might be out of Parliament. So suddenly Labour was not only fighting for its future, but also its proud and strong past.
Labour MPs sat around watching the Greens smugly campaign on an admission of benefit fraud, and get a big boost in the polls.
Then Winston Peters started toying with Labour, suggesting he’d be the PM, because it was so weak.
Labour simply couldn’t cut through. Little wasn’t connecting. Peter Dunne was even getting more airtime.
Labour started to panic. Time for action.
What to do, 55 days out from the general election?
Roll Andrew Little? No-one, I’m told, wanted a messy coup eight weeks out. It had to be clinical. And it had to come from Little. He had to own the decision.
Little sat down with senior colleagues. It was brutal. It was ‘‘bloody hard’’ and ‘‘awful’’ according to one source.
Finance spokesman Grant Robertson was apparently crucial in all this.
It’s no secret he’s tight with Jacinda Ardern. He will be her Michael Cullen and she is his Helen Clark.
Robertson knows how to move bodies – he did it under instruction from Clark and Heather Simpson. He knows how to dispose of them too.
I’m told everyone was honest in this difficult meeting. Little suggested resigning. It laid a seed. People left the room contemplating what to do next.
I’m told Little wasn’t keen to go. Others were nervous. It could backfire. Chatter began. Who could take over? They all knew.
Jacinda Ardern and deputy Kelvin Davis.
That ticket loosely formed over the following days – but not in any great seriousness.
Whip Kris Faafoi hit the phones – it had support. But no-one wanted to knife Little.
Least of all Ardern, who’d been adamant she never wanted the top job. No-one ever believed her. But she had kept her head down and hands clean.
If Little was to go he had to make the call. His MPs were hoping he’d do the right thing. He sat on it.
Then came last Sunday’s Colmar Brunton poll – a weekend king hit, Labour was at 24, followed shortly by the startling news that Little had offered to walk from the leadership.
Dead man walking. It was over. The death rattle could be heard. But Little still wasn’t entirely convinced.
MP Phil Twyford went close to giving the game away by saying he’d support Little ‘‘as long as he’s the leader’’. Hint hint. Nudge nudge.
Suddenly talk of a vote of noconfidence was doing the rounds. Still no one wanted blood. It had taken eight years to wipe the floor of the last few bloody coups.
MPs knew voters needed a smooth baton swap. They needed to protect Ardern. And they owed it to Little.
He’s liked, trusted, he’s a genuine team guy and a decent bloke. But he put the public to sleep.
Then came the Three-Reid Research poll, it was a lowly 24 again. Three strikes, Little was out.
He cancelled all media on Tuesday morning, it told us all we needed to know.
He returned to Wellington that morning and the deal was struck. MPs had lost confidence, a ticket had formed, it was now his call.
He had no option. He resigned and nominated Ardern and Davis unopposed.
It was smooth and as classy as knifing a leader can be. Labour’s had plenty of practice after all.
Little should be offered a top ministerial spot should Labour win. He’s owed it.
Meanwhile, Ardern has been a revelation. Strong, funny and positive.
The terminally ill Labour Party has come off life support and is in remission
No-one knows if Ardern is a game changer; with 50 brutal days to go anything can happen. But Labour is at least now in the game, money is coming in again, people are signing up, and National has the most to lose or worry about.
National ministers are said to be seriously packing themselves over the change. Ardern represents the new and fresh, Bill English, who struggles under intense pressure, represents the past.
But he is experienced and the economy is far from broken.
It’s true Ardern is yet to be tested. That’s coming. And so it should.
But over the years I’ve been reasonably impressed. She’s not flaky as some commentators with agendas suggest.
She may well announce that free tertiary education will start next year as Labour’s new policy. It would be like Clark’s interestfree student loans policy in 2005. It won the votes of students and their mums and dads. It will be called a bribe by opponents.
Robertson’s hands were over that then – and I’d suggest he will be guiding this change too.
Ardern may not win for Labour this election, but at least they’re in the ring.
Women had deserted Labour, now she’s welcoming them back one by one.
Ardern was always earmarked for this job, they just had to pretend to drag her kicking and screaming.
She’s ready. In reality, she’s been preparing for the last nine years. Age doesn’t matter, competence does.