Sudan faces threats from all sides

The noise outside must have been deafening. All week, Sudan’s generals had heard the repeated call ‘‘just fall, that’s all,’’ eventually yielding to it by toppling Omar al-bashir, Sudan’s military dictator for 30 years, and placing him under arrest.

But as night fell on Friday, local time, the chants wafting through the windows of Khartoum’s military headquarters were directed at them.

Hundreds of thousands, more than at any other time during the protests, had gathered to prevent the revolution from being stolen by the men in uniform on the other side of the wall. ‘‘Fall, again,’’ the crowds shouted, furious that the ruling military council had chosen Lieutenant General Awad ibn Auf, Bashir’s feared defence minister and the man he had apparently chosen to succeed him, as Sudan’s interim leader. ‘‘We do not replace a thief with a thief.’’

By 10pm, the generals had capitulated, announcing that ibn Auf would stand down.

Within little more than 24 hours, the protesters had succeeded in ejecting two leaders, one who had ruled for three decades, the other who had clung on for just a day.

On the streets there was unalloyed joy. Drivers hooted their horns and the protesters gathered outside the military compound near the confluence of the Blue and White Niles, waved their flags. Some wept.

There was cautious optimism, too, about the army’s choice of Sudan’s third leader in a week.

Lt Gen Abdel-fattah alburhan, the third most senior general in the armed forces, might be little known in Sudan.

But at least he lacked the baggage of ibn Auf, an apparatchik of the old regime who is under US sanctions for his alleged involvement in the massacre of hundreds of thousands of people in Sudan’s Darfur region.

Burhan is believed to be more willing to meet the demands of

the protesters – yesterday, the new transitional government announced it was overturning the 10pm curfew imposed since the coup, and would free political prisoners. Perhaps there is a genuine desire to meet the demands of protesters sick of decades of army rule.

After all, the core of the protest movement is made up of young professionals, members of a middle class that grew sharply during Sudan’s oil boom that ended a decade ago.

Many of them are women, powerfully symbolised by Alaa Saleh, the ‘‘woman in white’’ who rallied protesters from the roof of her car.

A substantial number are the children of army officers, the elite which most benefited from the boom, which is why soldiers chose to protect the protesters rather than fire on them.

‘‘My father is a colonel,’’ said Hiba, a 23-year-old trainee accountant who has participated in the protests outside military headquarters. Many of my friends here are the children of commanders. We respect our fathers and they mostly support us in what we want: that the armed forces take their place in a civilian constitutional order.’’

Yet the shambolic nature of Bashir’s overthrow and its aftermath also points to a power struggle within the security forces that threatens to thwart Sudan’s third civilian uprising against military rule since 1964. It could even plunge the country into civil war.

Sudan’s military hierarchy is deeply divided, between Islamists and secularists, between factions backed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and those supported by Turkey and Qatar, and between regular and irregular units. Only Bashir, who created these competing factions, could rein them in. With his departure, the fabric could break, easily and disastrously.

‘‘What we’ve had is a centralised patronage system, highly corrupt but also highly functional,’’ said Alex de Waal, a regional analyst.

‘‘Cut out the top guy and you have an oligopoly. They could collude, as happened in Algeria, but they don’t trust each other. They haven’t figured out who is the most powerful [or] where the resources are or how many there are.’’

The gravest threat comes from powerful paramilitary units, formed by the incorporation of often brutal militias used by Bashir to put down armed rebellions. These units were accused of killing and torturing protesters during the present uprising. Should they be denied a share of power, a violent response is likely, analysts say. The new government has vowed to put those who had harmed protesters on trial. But the revolution faces threats from other quarters. The rumoured arrests of dozens of Islamist politicians from Bashir’s ruling party could presage an army move to suggest that Sudan’s amorphous Muslim Brotherhood has infiltrated or even taken over the protest movement.

In reality, only a small fraction of the protesters are Islamists, analysts say – but it is possible that hardline Muslim groups could hijack the revolution.

Amid the euphoria of the past days, Sudan’s young, hope-filled protesters know their hopes of genuine change are beset by threats on all sides.

Their struggle remains very much in its infancy.

– Telegraph Group