Five Eyes watching defence plan
OPINION: Defence spending looks like becoming the big ticket exception to the Government’s focus on domestic ‘‘bread and butter’’ issues and on the Cyclone Gabrielle rebuild.
As the Cold War between the US and China heats up in the Pacific, both of the superpowers, some key US allies (Japan, Australia) and even neutral nations like India have all been significantly increasing their defence budgets.
Australia is planning to spend $100 billion on eight nuclear submarines alone. We are coming under pressure to lift our contribution.
All eyes – both here and overseas –will therefore be on the Budget to see if the Hipkins government is willing to line up with our traditional defence allies against China.
Previously, years of neglecting equipment upgrades in the armed forces compelled the coalition government to spend billions of dollars on new anti-submarine surveillance planes, and billions more on new Hercules heavy lift aircraft.
After those huge initial outlays, New Zealand’s defence spending fell to only 1.4% of GDP in 2021. Tensions between the US and China have increased since then.
Moreover, New Zealand has always faced the daunting prospect of replacing its frigates.
Building and arming them will cost further billions upon billions, with most of the jobs involved going to the Australian shipyards in Adelaide.
Politically, any boost to defence spending will be a difficult sell to a public faced with far more immediate threats to their wellbeing. No doubt, the Hipkins government will frame any increase in defence spending as being a necessary response to the climate change challenges in the Pacific.
The reality is that the main drivers for these spending increases are coming from elsewhere, with New Zealand feeling obliged to be seen as team players in countering the alleged threat posed by China.
From the Clark government onwards, Labour-led administrations have always been hyper-sensitive to the accusation of being ‘‘soft on defence.’’
In recent months, the US has been openly using security and foreign policy concerns as a trade weapon. As a result, it is getting harder for countries like New Zealand (and Australia) to remain best friends with China on trade, and best friends with the United States on defence and security.
Through gritted teeth, the US says it understands our dilemma. Yet reportedly, the US has also been asking its allies to comply with its trade sanctions against
China. The Netherlands has already agreed to do so.
Within the Five Eyes alliance, the pressure exerted on the partners to adopt a common front against Huawei, was recently extended to 28 other Chinese companies that the US has deemed to pose a serious threat to its national interests.
Unfortunately for free traders like New Zealand, the US could be (a)seeking a trade advantage for US firms against their Chinese rivals (b) seeking to deter China from pouring ammunition and weapons into Russia’s faltering war efforts in Ukraine and (c) seeking to hobble China’s socioeconomic modernisation, full stop. Or. perhaps, all of the above.
As the pressure mounts for us to spend considerably more on defence and line up against China on trade, New Zealand’s room to pursue an independent foreign policy seems to be rapidly shrinking.