SMART THINKING

‘Optimism bias’ is a tool used by many of us to manage our COVID-19 anxiety.

What is ‘optimism bias’ and how is it both protective and destructive during a pandemic?

Not long after World War I broke out in 1914, it was widely believed that the conflict would be ‘over by Christmas’. We’ve been hearing a similar story throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ever since it became apparent that the novel coronavirus was going to upend life as we knew it, we’ve received assurances from all manner of officials that an end to our unpleasant new circumstances is in sight. In May, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced plans to achieve a COVID-safe society by July, which included a pledge to consider a trans-Tasman travel bubble by that date. Donald Trump has repeatedly predicted a vaccine would be available around the time of the US election. World Health Organization chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said we have the technology and knowledge to end the pandemic in “less than two years”.

The goalposts continue to shift and there’s no indication that the pandemic will be ‘over by Christmas’. The world has, of course, been here before – the failed predictions of World War I that generated the famous saying being just one example. A precedent that is particularly relevant is the 1918 flu pandemic, when leaders frequently told the public that it would be over soon in an effort to keep people calm.

According to historian John M. Barry, author of The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, the half-truths (and sometimes lies) that officials told the public only exacerbated panic. It reduced trust in authority and caused people to turn to other sources of information, including rumours. The US surgeon general at the time told people that the 1918 virus was no worse than ordinary influenza. “The main lesson from 1918 is very clear: that you tell the truth in a publichealth setting,” Barry told CNBC.

That’s all terrifyingly familiar, but of course not all the guarantees we’ve been given have been deliberate deceptions. And it’s not just politicians telling us a return to normality is on the horizon – many of us have been hopeful all along that this is the case.

In May, preliminary results from a survey by Edith Cowan University (ECU) found that 68 per cent of respondents thought the COVID-19 situation would last for less than 12 months. The results point to ‘optimism bias’, in which we believe we are less likely to experience a negative event.

Optimism bias has quite clearly had its downsides in this pandemic; if people believe they are healthy enough that getting infected will not affect them, it can lead to recklessness and disregard for the rules put in place to keep us safe. But it’s also a way of protecting ourselves and our mental health. Hearing a vaccine will be available by next year is certainly more palatable than knowing the fastest vaccine developed to date took four years.

Psychological wellbeing expert Dr Shane Rogers, who collaborated on the ECU study, told The Sydney Morning Herald that optimism bias helps us get on with our lives. “By making predictions about how long it will last, this helps people to set a marker for how long they have to endure things, and this can help people to cope, and provide them a light at the end of the tunnel to look forward to,” he said. “For example, thoughts such as ‘Okay, I only need to put up with this for 12 months or so, I can do that’.”