PANDEMIC INSIGHTS

COVID-19 has changed our world in many ways, with new research revealing previously unknown dangers but also providing solutions to the disease.

COVID-19 has changed our world in myriad ways.

DELAYED OUTBREAKS OF DISEASES

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask wearing and social distancing that are key to reducing coronavirus infection have also greatly reduced the incidence of other diseases, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). But researchers from Princeton University report that current reductions in these common respiratory infections may increase people’s susceptibility to these diseases, resulting in large future outbreaks when they begin circulating again. While this reduction in cases of respiratory disease could be interpreted as a positive side effect of COVID-19 prevention, the reality is much more complex, says study author Rachel Baker, an associate research scholar at the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University. “Our results suggest that susceptibility to these other diseases, such as RSV and flu, could increase while NPIs are in place, resulting in large outbreaks when they begin circulating again.” The researchers found that even relatively short periods of NPI measures could lead to large future RSV outbreaks. These outbreaks were often delayed following the end of the NPI period, with peak cases projected to occur in many locations in winter 2021-22. “The decrease in cases of influenza and RSV – as well as the possible future increase we project – is arguably the broadest global impact of NPIs across a variety of human diseases that we’ve seen,” says co-author Bryan Grenfell, the Kathryn Briger and Sarah Fenton Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs. “NPIs could have unintended longer-term impacts on the dynamics of other diseases that are similar to the impact on susceptibility we projected for RSV.”