Kiwis not feeling too good about 2013
Finance Minister Bill English may be confident that the economy is on track for a moderate expansion in 2013, but New Zealanders are far more pessimistic about growth, jobs and salary prospects.
That is according to the latest HorizonPoll survey conducted at the end of last year, which showed that 34.2 per cent of respondents expected the economy to decline in 2013, versus 28.9 per cent who saw it growing.
The dour macroeconomic outlook worsened for manufacturing, with 42.9 per cent of respondents expecting the sector to decline versus 25 per cent who expected it to pick up.
This fed into employment and earnings expectations, with two-fifths of respondents expecting the job market to decline, and almost half expec- ting household incomes to fall in the year ahead.
Just more than 32 per cent of respondents said they expected their retail spending to decline, while 31.1 per cent expected it to remain static.
The survey polled 2425 people late last year.
The results broadly match the Institute of Economic Research’s most recent consensus forecast, which polled banks, institutional in- vestors, Treasury and the Reserve Bank. They saw the job market softening, unemployment remaining high and wages remaining subdued.
However, the NZIER poll also showed that overall economic growth was expected to average 2.5 per cent over the next three year, thanks to the Christchurch rebuild.
HorizonPoll manager Grant McInman noted that households with incomes of $70,000 to $200,000 were more likely to hold a positive view of the economy.
However, the wealthy (earning $200,000 or more), intellectuals, business owners and the self-employed were likely to have a glass-half-empty view of their prospects in 2013.
The area where Kiwis were upbeat was exports, with 34 per cent expecting sales of New Zealand-produced goods offshore to pick up, versus 23.3 per cent who predicted a decline.
This appears to be largely driven by agriculture, with 36.7 per cent forecasting the sector to grow over the next 12 months, with only 16 per cent picking a drop in farm activity.
Research and development activity was largely split between pessimists, optimists and those who expected no substantial change. Just under 30 per cent expected the conditions of the environment to decline, versus 19 per cent who saw it improving.