Riding wave

With NZ’s economy tipped to be booming this year, Naomi Arnold takes the economic pulse of Nelson for 2014.

Economists usually get a rough ride in the eyes of the public. American Edgar R Fiedler, an economist himself, once opined that if you asked five economists a question, you’d get five different answers. ‘‘Six if one went to Harvard,’’ he said.

Playwright George Bernard Shaw said that if you laid all the economists in the world end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion. But it seems that many have managed to do so this year. They report that New Zealand is in for a booming 2014, and, indeed, measures of confidence are growing around the country.

Last month, US business news channel CNBC picked New Zealand as the global ‘‘rock star’’ economy for 2014, with growth set to outpace most of its developed markets.

HSBC chief economist for Australasia Paul Bloxham predicted bullish growth based on the Canterbury rebuild, the country’s housing boom, and rising dairy prices; as Fairfax columnist Michael Pascoe said recently, what iron ore and coking coal did for Australia, milk powder is doing for New Zealand.

Mr Bloxham predicts the Kiwi economy will grow 3.4 per cent in 2014, the fastest pace since 2007, and draw even with the Australian dollar by the end of the year. Meanwhile, a PWC annual global CEO survey shows Kiwi chief executives are more upbeat about their business prospects in 2014 than their international counterparts, with 89 per cent feeling confident. Others say the New Zealand dollar is the ‘‘hottest’’ currency of 2014.

BNZ economist Tony Alexander is speaking in Nelson at a Chamber of Commerce function next month and he agrees with Mr Bloxham, saying things are improving in our economy, with terms of trade – the ratio of export to import prices – at their highest level since 1973, Christchurch reconstruction set to stretch on for up to eight years, hefty investment in dairying and infrastructure, and strong jobs growth that has picked up ‘‘tremendously’’.

It will be, by all accounts, a very good year – and both Mr Alexander and chamber chief executive Dot Kettle say Nelson and Tasman will reap the rewards.

Ms Kettle cites a recent chamber survey of 80 members in late January that showed 79 per cent were feeling more confident about business for 2014, with just 4 per cent less confident. ‘‘[That’s] a staggering vote of confidence in how they’re seeing the year ahead,’’ Ms Kettle says.

The survey also found that although 40 per cent of businesses intended to hire more staff, none expected to let any go, which will surely come as a relief to workers, many of whom will have feared for their jobs since financial crisis.

‘‘That’s an indicator, I think, of some substance to what we’re hearing at a national level in terms of growing business confidence, and that the New Zealand and our local economy look like they will perform very well this year,’’ Ms Kettle says. ‘‘We’re feel-

the

global ing very confident.’’

In fact, unemployment in the top of the south has taken a dive in the past year. The Household Labour Force Survey, an official measure of employment, shows the unemployment rate for the Nelson, Tasman, Marlborough and West Coast region dropped from 5.8 per cent to 4.2 per cent in the year to December, which means 1400 more people have found jobs.

Nelson Regional Economic Development Agency chief executive Bill Findlater says he’s been enthusiastic about our future for quite some time and prospects continue to look good.

‘‘I think Nelson’s on the cusp of something really good,’’ he says, citing the research sector working together to find commercial benefits for their research and Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology structuring courses to fit industry. The recession has strengthened the position of many that survived it. ‘‘It’s all looking pretty strong.’’

He says primary industries, on which our region has a higher dependence than many, look promising as well.

Logs, fruit, fish and dairy had a good year last year, with solid