As the mercury rises, farmers see little relief in sight
An intense weather phenomenon is set to scorch Nelson this spring and summer, heralding drought conditions and the risk of ‘‘extreme’’ scrub fires. Metservice said the El Nino weather pattern would bring unusually dry conditions and hot temperatures to the region, and there was a ‘‘good chance’’ the mercury would soar to record highs in October.
While local tourism operators predicted a boom in business as travellers flocked to soak up the sun, farmers and fruit growers expected to suffer in the searing heat.
Federated Farmers Golden Bay president Sue Brown said many farmers were still struggling to cope with last year’s drought.
If conditions worsened in the coming months, farmers would be driven towards cost-cutting measures like slaughtering surplus stock, Brown said.
‘‘Farmers definitely feel it in the pocket.
‘‘They are already getting their heads around alternatives.’’
Orchard manager Evan Heywood said the lack of rain would hurt fruit growers in areas, such as Waimea, where the water supply was limited.
‘‘If the weather carries on like this, so hot and dry, people will need to look at irrigation.
‘‘That is unheard of at this time of year.’’
Seifried Estate winemaker Hermann Seifried said the forecast The average temperature in October could rise two degrees above the historical monthly average of 16.8 degrees
Nelson is likely to set a new record for its hottest October temperature, topping the current record of 23.5 degrees
There is a heightened risk of fire danger in the tinder-dry conditions
Visitor numbers at local attractions could grow by up to 50 per cent
Agricultural productivity will be stunted as feed supplies dry up.
The last severe El Nino event wiped over $600 million off the New Zealand economy.
With river levels dropping, local councils are already discussing water rationing steps.
Nelson is expected to receive less rain in October than the 84mm historical average was far from ideal for the vineyard.
‘‘We certainly will feel it, there is no doubt about it. We hope there is some good rain in the next three or four weeks.’’
Rural fire officer Ian Reade said the fire risk would soar as the region was fanned by hot, dry winds.
‘‘Any fire will burn quite quickly. When you get to those extreme levels, no matter how much you throw at a fire, you can’t slow it down.’’
Reade said the hot, dry conditions could make areas so combustible, it would be possible for two-month-old embers to re-ignite and start fires.
Faced with the looming threat of drought, both the region’s councils said water management would be a major issue over summer.
Tasman District Council was already discussing mitigation measures such as water rationing, and was likely to convene the Dry Weather Taskforce if it did not rain soon.
The Nelson City Council was set to introduce water restrictions as reservoir levels dropped, and urged property owners to be careful with water usage.
Although the forecast was a nightmare for the rural sector, it was shaping as a dream for Nel- son’s tourism operators.
Chief executive of NelsonTasman Tourism Lynda Keene said a sunny weather pattern was great news for tourism.
‘‘When the region has long, sunny, and windless days it really adds to everyone feeling upbeat.
‘‘Good weather . . . is always good for retailers, wineries, breweries, food producers, and tourism operators.’’
Tahuna Beach Holiday Park manager Marcel Fekkes said the forecast was fantastic.
‘‘I think with great weather like that we would see a lot more international tourists. It’s good all round for us really.’’
Nelson Fun Park owner Michel Lee said the outlook could see a huge rise in business.
‘‘When it’s a nice and warm day we often get a 50 per cent rise in numbers. It definitely brings the families out.’’