English off to fast start but election is a marathon
produced the same pressures as in Britain (and the rest of Europe) and we are untouched by terrorism.
But Brexit and the US election were notable for the willingness of some deliberately to erode public confidence in the system and not always by telling the truth.
Will the rules also be thrown out the window here?
The economy
After Trump and Brexit New Zealand was talked up as a favoured bolt hole for the rich and famous.
We’re seen as safe, prosperous and happy compared with much of the rest of the world – even Trump thinks so apparently.
But closer to home the view may not seem so rosy. Wages are relatively low, the cost of living is high, and rising rents and soaring house prices are driving a wedge between the haves and have-nots.
Rising interest rates and global uncertainty could buffet the economy in ways that exacerbate that.
But for now the economy is still National’s ace in the hand.
Don’t rock the boat will be the big theme of 2017.
Making it stick
Elections are all about throwing mud at your opponent and making it stick. Labels are how politicians do that.
Across the Tasman Malcolm Turnbull is stuck with the name Mr Harbourside Mansion – a label that turns his wealth against him. Trump is a master at labels – chanting Crooked Hillary, drain the swamp, and lock her up repeatedly was what won him the election.
But labels are not a new phenomenon, though they are not always negative.
Bill Clinton was Slick Willy, Rob Muldoon was Piggy and Keith Holyoake was Kiwi Keith. The Left-wing blogs called John Key donkey, Slippery John, and Smile and Wave. But he was also Teflon John.
The big sell
New governments have a placebo effect on voters, who see things improving even when nothing much has changed.
But after nine years in power that has long ago worn off and the problems have a way of coming home to roost.
Record immigration levels have worsened the pressures on hospitals, schools and roading.
House prices seem to know only one direction and that’s up.
Law and order has become a burning issue in parts of the country, particularly provincial and rural areas where police are thin on the ground and there is a growing sense of lawlessness.
Labour’s big sell is to be seen as offering credible solutions and not just carping. The party’s not there yet.
National’s big sell is persuading voters they can have their cake and eat it too by fixing the problems while spending billions of dollars on tax cuts. It’s not there yet either.
The unexpected
Hacked emails. Dirty Politics. The Exclusive Brethren. Bob Clarkson’s left testicle. The global financial crisis. Corngate. The Moment of Truth. Kim Dotcom.
Never assume it’s going to be a boring election.