The end is nigh for 51st Parliament
For the first time since 2005 it feels like National is in danger of defeat.
But it took until the dying weeks of the 51st Parliament, and the phenomenon that is Jacinda Ardern, for the script to be rewritten.
For almost nine years since John Key swept to power in 2008 political change had seemed to have become an alien notion.
A conga line of Labour leaders rocked up and were knocked over by Key.
Helen Clark quit after 2008 and Phil Goff, David Shearer, David Cunliffe and Andrew Little all failed to make a lasting dent in the popularity of Key and, by association, the National Party.
The mathematics of MMP made the outcomes look closer than they felt.
The elections in 2011, 2014 came and went, and despite the Kim Dotcom, dirty politics and ‘‘moment of truth’’ weirdness of the last election Key and his team came through, albeit with a very slim majority once the postelection deals were done.
While it always seemed possible for Labour to cobble together a coalition in the run-up to the election, the reality left them short.
And between times, on a twoparty basis, National has monstered Labour, usually polling closer to 50 per cent against Labour’s low 30s – or even worse.
Occasionally the LabourGreen bloc has outpolled National, but it was a long time between drinks.
Even when John Key stunned everyone by stepping down in December, in favour of deputy Bill English, normal poll transmission was soon resumed.
Little unified Labour where previous leaders had failed, but while he seemed the equal of English in the House he did not spark the voters. And as the election campaign loomed, Labour’s polling went into free fall, hitting 23 per cent and looking set to plumb even lower, and a fourth term National government looked odds-on.
And then along came Ardern and all the established truths went out the window.
On a wave of ‘‘Jacinda-mania’’ and positive media coverage, she turned Labour’s fortunes around almost overnight, helped by the meltdown in the Greens.
In Thursday’s One NewsColmar Brunton poll Labour was on 37 and National on 44 per cent. As preferred prime minister, Ardern was level-pegging with Bill English on 30 per cent.
So what went wrong for National?
There hasn’t been a strong mood to change the direction of the country but there was a mood for something new and fresh, especially after the popular Key went.
There wasn’t the same upheaval we had seen in the United States or the UK or France, where voters turned away from the established order and voted for the outsider, the politician with a radical new take on how to run the country. But there was a similar undercurrent that some surveys picked up and Little talked up – though frustratingly he could never capture the mood and bend it to his side.
But it seems the positivity, the youth and the freshness of Ardern have acted as the lightning rod.
With five weeks to run, the election is still there for National or Labour to win, although the Jacinda effect may not yet have run its course.