Six ways to fix a harness race
An unlucky run or something more sinister? How the result of a race could, in theory, be manipulated.
Is it really happening right under our noses or is the ‘‘cheats on seats’’ mentality just a myth?
For decades the debate has raged about the integrity of harness racing but it has never been under the microscope as it is right now.
A total of 10 people have been arrested as part of Operation Inca, a 17-month investigation by the National Organised Crime Group into alleged corruption within the harness racing industry and that culminated in raids on 17 properties in Canterbury, Manawatu¯ and Invercargill on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Punters are all too often screaming blue murder at a driver’s tactics. Claiming the driver wasn’t trying or pulled the horse up but normally those claims are dismissed as a beaten punter talking through his wallet.
Proving the difference between something sinister and a brain explosion from a driver is never easy.
Rugby players make mistakes and so do harness racing drivers.
So how common is race-fixing? Opinions range from those who are adamant it happens at most meetings to others who claim Operation Inca is a storm in a teacup that will all blow over.
The truth will be known when the court cases from Operation Inca – which could drag on for years – are complete.
But no matter how much of a fishy taste it leaves in the mouths of punters, there are reasons why a driver will employ different tactics from different draws.
Questioning a driver who utilises unusual driving tactics – especially on a favourite – is generally standard practice for racing stewards.
The issue for stewards is that almost every way a race result can be manipulated by driver tactics can also be counter-argued with a reasoning for the driver’s actions depending on the horse or the race situation.
Working out whether those tactics are genuine is where the waters get really murky.
From thinking something isn’t quite right to proving it is a long and testing road with a hurdle at every bend.
But Operation Inca is much more complex than any stewards inquiry. To make arrests, police clearly have a lot more evidence than a couple of race replays and a few testimonies from out-of-luck punters.
Harness racing lends itself to race fixing more than thoroughbred racing.
It’s not at all unheard of for a galloper to get stuck in traffic and not be able to find a clear run, but it is much less common than it is in harness racing because of the width of the carts.
With the camera technology available to stewards and advanced drug testing in modern day racing, getting a horse to win that shouldn’t is pretty much impossible. Most race-fixing allegations involve a horse which should go close to winning but does not perform to the standard expected.
But horses are like humans. They can have a bad day as an athlete.
Ways of manipulating a race result are like any form of cheating or corruption – they are as wide and varied as the imagination runs but here are six ways that race results could, in theory, be manipulated.
ONE: If there are two dominant runners in the market, it only takes those two drivers to influence the result of the race. If the driver of the favourite can guarantee he’s not going to win, the second favourite becomes an extremely astute bet and the driver of the second favourite can adjust his tactics accordingly.
For anyone who is given the nod that the favourite is not going to win, it can become an extremely lucrative racket and the chances of beating the odds are dramatically increased. Passing that information on to punters can be deemed a criminal offence.
Major betting plunges will be looked at closely but if it is on the second favourite it is far less obvious than a multitude of big bets on a 50-1 shot. All the favourite driver has to do is find themselves some bad luck. (see two).
TWO: If a driver can manage to get himself stuck three or four back on the inside markers on a horse that is a winning chance it can be an easy way to end up being ‘‘unlucky’’.
It’s the most economical way to complete the race and it’s covering the shortest trip, plus there is the draught from the runners in front. However, it’s also the best place to be if you are wanting to get blocked in and increase the chances of not finding a clear run home until it’s too late (see three).
The excuse can then be that the driver was looking to get the most economical run and in hindsight, it may have been a mistake.
THREE: If a driver who is not wanting to win is able to find themselves wide early it is more than plausible – depending on the specific horse and situation – to drop back to the back of the pack.
It would be expected the driver would make a mid-race move to put themselves in contention if they are on a runner that is well supported in the betting market, but some horses are better suited to one sprint home with cover so they will wait until the home straight.
All the driver needs to do is time their run a little too late and then try their hardest to make up as much ground as possible but ultimately come up a little short.
There is nothing more frustrating from a punting perspective to see your runner charging home only to just miss out and finish third or fourth.
Once again, proving the difference between timing your run perfectly and being desperately unlucky because the run was left a few seconds late is a fine line.
FOUR: Probably the most common form of so-called race fixing is drivers sharing tactics pre-race.
If a driver wants his horse to lead he would normally have to sprint away from the starting gate, but if he has already conspired with one or more of the drivers who are drawn around them and a running order is agreed on, drivers can be much less demanding of their runners in the opening stages of the race. That saves more of a horse’s stamina for the final sprint home to the winning post.
If drivers share this information with punters it can be deemed a criminal offence depending on what is said.
FIVE: Getting caught three wide without cover is one of the worst places to be in the running unless you’re making a move forward to the front.
Not only do you have more ground to cover, there are no horses to get a draught behind. But if you’re looking to lose, getting caught three wide without cover if you’ve drawn near the outside can be the easiest place to find some bad luck.
Burn some gas trying to go to the front and then decide it’s going to be too hard on your horse so drop back to the rear of the field. When the driver’s horse fails to run home to its full potential it is quite obviously because the early burn of being three wide took its toll on the horse.
SIX: It’s not just drivers who can influence a race. Trainers can manipulate a race by sending their horses to a race when they are underdone or a run short of full fitness.
It might be well supported in the betting market but if it lacks the fitness it is unlikely to figure in the finish.
This happens more than most would care to admit, but usually it is to drop back into easier races in the future rather than for betting purposes.
Stewards can query the performance of a horse and its condition will be obvious to the trained eye of any horseman, but the ability to prove it has been sent to the races not to win is hard to come by.