A look at life after coronavirus
The pandemic will drive business innovation that will endure long after the disease is defeated, writes
If truth is the first casualty of war, then the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic shows every sign of being another example. Three months since the first reported case, reliable information is becoming as rare as toilet paper, face masks and a busy Chinese restaurant.
The other parallel is more sobering. As far as we know, the virus’s mortality rate is about 3 per cent. That’s about the same percentage of the world’s population that died in World War II.
There are differences, of course. It’s almost impossible that everyone on the planet will catch the disease and that no cure will be found. And while the World War II losses were mostly among the young and fighting fit, the average age of death due to Covid-19 so far is 80.
So far, so grim.
But let’s look forward – maybe nine months, maybe a couple of years – to when Covid-19 is under control.
What could be the lasting effects on business and everyday life?
Looking back over the last century or so, the other thing global wars had in common is that they all drove innovation.
Technology and society advance far more rapidly in times of global crisis. We will innovate and adapt, and many of the changes will stick.
Travel
Ironically, the global air travel market was made possible by a global crisis. World War II accelerated aircraft innovation and left us with the planes, pilots and long runways that cheap world travel needed.
Covid-19 could well wind back the clock.
Governments, followed by businesses and sporting bodies, have imposed severe restrictions on international travel.
Travel will bounce back postvirus, but by then we will have become familiar with new ways of working, so it’s unlikely business travel will return to anything like the same level.
How we connect
If there’s one thing a virus likes, it’s a room full of people from all over the world, shaking hands. Conferences large and small are being canned, forcing businesses to find new ways to communicate, learn and sell, and many of these will stick once the pandemic passes.
Gatherings for entertainment – concerts, movies, festivals and so on – are more likely to recover. Like Marie Kondo’s half-empty sock drawer, they spark joy and we’re always going to want that.
How we work
Technology companies have been predicting for years that we’d be working from home.
Until now, though, it just hasn’t happened. The number of Kiwis working from home reached about 10 per cent a decade ago and hasn’t grown much since then.
Today, the technology to support remote working is accessible to almost any business. That 10 per cent figure? Expect it to go up and stay up.
How we commute
Not everyone can work from home. So how will the way we get to work and school change? One unfortunate and likely effect will be people avoiding public transport. So we can expect a rise in private vehicle use. On the upside, for those who can make it work, commuting by cycling or walking, is likely to increase. Hopefully this habit will stick.
How we shop
Online shopping, especially for groceries and ready-to-eat meals, is already booming.
If the pandemic leads to people staying home, it’s likely this will accelerate.
As the home food delivery market grows, so will the logistics back end needed to support it. Once home delivery becomes a habit, it’s likely to continue post-pandemic too.
Three months in, it’s not clear whether Covid-19 will become this generation’s World War II or just another skirmish in the endless battle against disease.
Either way, we will adapt, change and innovate,just as we always have in the face of global threats.
While the challenges are ahead of us aren’t clear, I reckon we can find the confidence to face them by looking to history.
Kia whakatomuri te haere whakamua: ‘‘I walk backwards into the future with my eyes fixed on my past.’’
Vaughn Davis is the owner of Auckland social media consultancy The Goat Farm.