Ardern shifts NZ closer to Japan – and the US
They had never even talked before last night but New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida quickly found a lot to agree on.
In their first moments in front of the cameras both brushed off a cultural clash: Ardern went for the handshake, Kishida for the fist bump, which has won wide use throughout the pandemic.
They then both tried the opposite idea, Ardern with the fist and Kishida with the hand, before settling for a handshake, with Ardern suggesting they could high-five as well. There were no high-fives for the cameras but the few laughs belied a very serious discussion. The meeting happened too late to make Kiwi news broadcasts or much of a splash in newspapers but was far more momentous than Ardern’s first bilateral this week with Singapore’s Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong.
This time, among all the usual talk about sustainability and a rules-based order, was some actual policy content: An agreement to work out a deal so that New Zealand and Japan can share classified information and intelligence ‘‘seamlessly’’.
In case anyone missed exactly who exactly Japan and New Zealand might want to share intelligence about, their joint statement and speeches were peppered with references to China – both directly, with condemnations of the country’s actions in Xinjiang and Hong Kong – and indirectly, with talk of the Indo-Pacific region needing to be kept secure with a ‘‘rules-based system’’. This agreement would have been hammered out behind the scenes long before last night but the timing is still important. China signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands, earning rebukes from all around the Pacific, including New Zealand – which worries, along with others, that it could mean China building a military base deep into the neighbourhood.
Ardern’s line on the Solomons’ deal is that she is worried it will lead to a ‘‘militarisation’’ of the Pacific. But it is clear the real problem the West has is who exactly is doing this militarisation. The US has military bases dotted all over the Pacific, and is looking to get more, but you don’t hear many up in arms about that.
A huge collection of those bases are in Japan, one of the US’ closest security partners in the region. Japan is starting to lift its activities across the rest of the Pacific, something New Zealand welcomed in the joint statement. The agreement moves New Zealand closer to the US as well as Japan.
But Japan and New Zealand need more than the full might of the US military to really move away from China. China is the largest trading partner of both countries. The US has lost any domestic appetite for more free trade deals, meaning there is no real chance of it rejoining the trans-Pacific trade pact Japan now dominates, but there are likely other economic carrots the biggest economy in the world can offer the region.
Ardern has chosen her words carefully on China and knows they will be picked apart in Washington DC and Beijing. The trick is still being able to shake hands in both cities.