Omicron XE ‘not a big leap’ for new variant
Kiwi experts are reassuring the public that the newly detected Omicron XE variant of Covid-19 is not a ‘‘big leap’’ from previous ones.
The Ministry of Health announced yesterday the XE variant had been detected in Aotearoa for the first time – found in an overseas traveller on Saturday.
Epidemiologists have acknowledged the XE variant is slightly more transmissible than Omicron, according to UK research by around less than 10%.
‘‘Alpha, Delta and Omicron were very different to the strains prevalent at the time, that is why they really took off and became dominant. There was no question about if they had growth advantage, it was clear across the world they had it,’’ said Dr David Welch of Auckland University.
‘‘XE has been around a little while now; so far none of those recombinants have a significant growth advantage.’’
Omicron XE is the result of the genome of Omicron subvariants, BA.1 and BA.2, mixing to create a hybrid.
There is no Delta involved at all.
Epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker, of the University of Otago, said the main implication of XE was its infectiousness – which was shown by its rapid emergence in recent months.
Baker said a second wave of Covid-19 was likely with the arrival of an infectious variant like XE, something widely predicted by the science community and seen overseas.
It was likely to have a small impact on the number of Kiwis getting infected by the virus, Baker said.
‘‘But we know other factors that could be contributing
towards [a second wave], which we see internationally, are changes in the organism, waning immunity, and a lessening of restrictions and precautions,’’ Baker told Stuff.
‘‘I don’t think [XE] is more dangerous – there is no evidence to that fact. Unless it is a dramatic difference, it can take weeks or months to work out if new lineages are more dangerous.’’
Baker said the Pfizer vaccine would offer a similar level of protection against XE as it did for Omicron.
‘‘Prior immunity is often what protects us from new variants.
‘‘It appears to be less dangerous but often only because we are more protected,’’ he said.
As a result of XE’s minimal impacts, Baker said he would be ‘‘highly surprised’’ if the country moved back to the red light level of restrictions as a result of it reaching New Zealand.
‘‘The traffic light system is becoming less relevant; I think now it is much more about vaccination rates and booster coverage, as well as making indoor environments safer,’’ he said.
‘‘We are relying on traffic lights less than we were. But even in the orange traffic light we were shifted when transmission was still very high in the South Island, so we are using it differently now,’’ Baker said.
‘‘Prior immunity is often what protects us from new variants.’’
Professor Michael Baker
Epidemiologist