Covid lull before new peak

Nelson-Marlborough is riding the long tail of the Omicron outbreak but the public are being warned to prepare for another peak that could clash with other winter ills.

An analysis of the region’s daily case numbers shows the seven-day rolling average has flattened off since April 19, fluctuating between 247 and 301, after peaking at 588 on April 1. The highest daily case number of 729 was recorded on March 31.

But, while this long tail was expected, modelling also suggested a winter spike was on the way, Nelson Marlborough Health chief medical officer Dr Nick Baker warned.

The numbers showed that daily cases were averaging around 250 a day, with daily cases dropping over the weekends and spiking on Tuesdays – though voluntary reporting of cases meant actual numbers were probably higher, he said.

Meanwhile, hospitalisations were between five and 12 a day. ‘‘We have still had a number of people who have been really, really sick with Covid, and it remains a significant threat to some people.’’

The virus had worked its way into ‘‘all corners of the community’’ and last week in particular there were a lot of cases in the aged care sector, Baker said. Overall, the region was currently experiencing a ‘‘ May lull’’ and there was no telling when it would come to an end.

Overseas experiences with

Omicron indicated there would be a second wave, so that was expected to come around June or July, Baker said. ‘‘There will be more to come.’’

Now was the time to ‘‘regroup’’ ahead of a spike in cases, which was likely to coincide with other winter viruses – namely influenza and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), he said.

Last year, RSV hit the community hard after being reduced in 2020 due to lockdowns. Last July, cases in Nelson-Marlborough peaked at about 80 cases per week for children aged 5 and under, with nine infants having to be hospitalised.

Influenza cases were already starting to pop up in the South Island and RSV was being reported in the North Island, Baker said.

Children under 3 were particularly vulnerable, as they had not had the same exposure to viruses they would have had prepandemic, meaning they had not built immunities.

Winter conditions were optimal for spreading viruses, so all the lessons learned from Covid would remain important to help minimise spread, he said.

That meant being socially responsible if you were ill.

If you are sick, ‘‘no-one wants to sit next to you’’, he said. ‘‘So keep away from people ... a negative test is nice to have but it is not an excuse to share your virus.’’

Baker urged people to take stock of their health now, before the illnesses arrived in the community.

That included catching up on all vaccinations – not just for Covid – and getting check-ups for existing conditions such as blood pressure and diabetes which might have been neglected.

The health system was also preparing for another influx of illness, with the worst case scenario being surges in Covid, RSV and flu at the same time.

Dr Nick Baker