Winter hospital peak tipped
Thousands of people could be admitted to hospital with respiratory illnesses daily over winter, including more than 1000 with Covid-19 alone at what could potentially be a ‘‘quite high’’ peak, the Government is warning.
Yesterday, Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield outlined modelling around planning for winter. It was expected Aotearoa would see a resurgence of Covid-19, alongside influenza and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) outbreaks.
New data showed while the southern region was seeing the highest number of cases per 1000 people (particularly in Canterbury and Dunedin) and the seven-day rolling average remained steady overall, case numbers were ‘‘creeping up again’’ in Auckland.
Bloomfield said it appeared New Zealand had reached the nadir – the ‘‘bottoming-out’’ – of both cases and hospitalisations from this outbreak and ‘‘may well be on our way up again’’, as officials estimated about half of cases were going unreported.
New Zealand had passed the peak of the Omicron outbreak but officials were preparing for another potential peak that ‘‘could be quite high’’, Bloomfield said.
The modelling looked at two scenarios. One had a lower peak, delayed to about August-September.
The second scenario – which could be starting already – forecast an increase in cases and hospitalisations in May and another ‘‘quite large peak’’ through winter, Bloomfield said.
District health boards and national health authorities were anticipating and planning for concurrent influenza and RSV outbreaks.
The modelling showed that at the peak, around July or August, there could be a ‘‘pretty significant’’ number of people in hospitals with respiratory illnesses.
New Zealand had a ‘‘really quite significant’’ RSV outbreak last winter, after Covid-19 precautions meant the usual winter of RSV infections and hospitalisations in 2020 did not come to pass.
Flu also all but disappeared: Eight cases were detected in 2020 by ESR (Institute of Environmental Science and Research) and 14 in 2021, mainly from overseas returnees.
In the first four months of this year, seven influenza cases were detected in Auckland by ESR’s whole genome sequencers – all influenza A.
Influenza A had also since been found in the lower part of the South Island, particularly in the student population in Dunedin and in Queenstown, Bloomfield said yesterday.
Flu vaccination was ‘‘imperative’’ this year, he said.
Since the vaccination programme began in April, nearly 700,000 people had received their vaccine, including about half of over-65-year-olds.
‘‘Please go and get one if you are eligible [for a free flu jab]. Even if you are not, please consider doing so. It is relatively cheap,’’ he said.
Kiwis have been warned a severe flu season could be on the horizon as the borders open, managed isolation is dissolved and immunity is lowered but experts have also said it is possible New Zealand could experience a situation similar to northern hemisphere countries, with a low flu season.