Why Finland and Sweden in Nato will be such a big deal

It’s likely to be the quickest Nato enlargement yet, and one that would redraw Europe’s security map. Finnish leaders have announced their belief that Finland should join the world’s biggest military organisation because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Sweden could soon follow suit.

Should they apply for membership, the move would have far-reaching ramifications for Northern Europe and transAtlantic security.

No doubt, it will also anger their large neighbour Russia, which blames its war on Ukraine, at least in part, on Nato’s continued expansion closer to its borders. It’s unclear how Russian President Vladimir Putin might retaliate, though the Kremlin has said it certainly won’t improve European security.

The following is a brief look at what Finland and Sweden’s membership of the 30-country North Atlantic Treaty Organisation could mean.

Finland and Sweden

Not neutral like Switzerland, Finland and Sweden traditionally think of themselves as militarily ‘‘non-aligned’’.

But Russia’s war in Ukraine and Putin’s apparent desire to establish a Moscow-centred ‘‘sphere of influence’’ has shaken their security notions to the core. Just days after Putin ordered the February 24 invasion, public opinion shifted dramatically.

Support in Finland for Nato membership has hovered around 20-30% for years. It now stands at over 70%.

The two countries are Nato’s closest partners, but maintaining good ties with Russia has been an important part of their foreign policy, particularly for Finland.

Now they hope for security support from Nato states — primarily the United States — in case Moscow retaliates. Britain pledged last week to come to their aid.

The Nordic region

Nato membership for the two, joining regional neighbours Denmark, Norway and Iceland, would formalise their joint security and defence work in ways that their Nordic Defence Co-operation pact hasn’t.

Nordefco, as it’s known, focuses on co-operation. Working within Nato means putting forces under joint command.

Accession would tighten the strategic Nordic grip on the Baltic Sea, which is Russia’s maritime point of access to the city of St Petersburg and its Kaliningrad exclave, wedged between Nato allies Poland and Lithuania.

Finland and Sweden also join them, along with Iceland, at the heart of the triangle formed with the North Atlantic and maritime areas in the Arctic, to where Russia projects its military might from the northern Kola Peninsula. Integrated Nato military planning will become a lot simpler, making the region easier to defend.

Nato

Finland and Sweden are Nato’s closest partners. They contribute to the alliance’s operations and air policing.

Most importantly, they already meet Nato’s membership criteria, on functioning democracies, good neighbourly relations, clear borders and armed forces that are in lock-step with the allies.

After the invasion of Ukraine, they formally boosted information exchanges with Nato and sit in on every meeting on war issues.

Both are modernising their armed forces and investing in new equipment. Finland is purchasing dozens of high-end F-35 warplanes. Sweden has topquality fighter jets, the Gripen.

Finland says it’s already hit Nato’s defence spending guideline of 2% of gross domestic product. Sweden too is ramping up its military budget and expects to reach the target by 2028. The Nato average was estimated at 1.6% last year.

Russia

Putin has demanded that Nato stop expanding and, in a May 9 speech, blamed the West for the war. But public opinion in Finland and Sweden suggests he has driven them into Nato’s arms.

If Finland joins, it would double the length of the alliance’s border with Russia, adding a further 1300 kilometres for Moscow to defend.

Putin has promised a ‘‘military, technical’’ response if they join. But many troops from Russia’s western district near Finland were sent to Ukraine, and those units are believed to have suffered heavy casualties.

So far, Moscow is doing nothing obvious to dissuade the two – apart from a couple of incidents where Russian planes entered their airspace. The Kremlin says its response could depend on how close Nato infrastructure moves towards Russia’s borders.

Some at Nato worry the Russians might deploy nuclear weapons or more hypersonic missiles to Kaliningrad.

Sweden and Finland, in orange, are considering membership of Nato. Other than the countries marked in grey, the rest have joined the alliance in various stages since 1949.