Peters in kingmaker position in new poll
A new political poll has NZ First leader Winston Peters once again in the kingmaker position, reclaiming a place in Parliament and deciding the next Government.
A Horizon Research poll, provided exclusively to Stuff, showed NZ First – fresh off the back of holding a party conference and a year out from the election – had crossed the vital 5% threshold of party vote required to enter Parliament, with 6.75% support. .
Labour had an edge on National, however neither had enough support to govern with their respective traditional coalition partners, Green and ACT. If the 2023 election returned this poll’s outcome, Peters would be the deciding factor.
‘‘Between the major parties the contest is close. Labour is ahead of National in large and regional cities and close to National in small towns and rural areas,’’ said Graeme Colman, Horizon Research’s principal. ‘‘If New Zealand First should not achieve an electoral seat or 5% of the vote, then the contest is very close.’’
The poll placed Labour at 31.37% support, which would provide it 40 seats in Parliament. National garnered the support of 28.32% of those surveyed, considerably lower than other recent poll results have indicated, an outcome which would provide it 37 seats in the House.
The Green Party was at 11.87% support, earning it 15 seats, an increase on its current 10 MPs. The ACT Party, which also has 10 MPs in Parliament, gained the support of 13.07% of those polled, which would provide it 17 seats. Te Pati Ma¯ori, at 1.74%, could be presumed to gain two seats in Parliament if it
were to retain an electorate seat.
If an election were to return these results, neither a Labour-Green coalition, at 55 seats, or a National-ACT coalition, at 54 seats, would have the required 61 seats to form a Government. Te Pati Ma¯ori’s two seats would not make the difference. NZ First, at 6.75% and nine seats, would once again decide who governs the country, as it did after the 2017 election.
The outcome comes from a survey of 911 adults who were registered to vote and, unlike other major polls, were certain they would vote. The poll had a margin of error of 3.2%, meaning NZ First’s crossing the 5% threshold was within the margin of error.
The poll was conducted between October 20 and 25.