First fall in school rolls

Almost every region will lose funding for teaching jobs after the national school roll plummeted by 11,421 students in 2022 – the first drop on public record.

Kyle Brewerton, principal at Remuera Intermediate School, said the decrease is worrying school leaders.

‘‘A lot of our funding is determined by bums on seats – people are nervous. It’s a little like the housing market, you just don’t know where it’s going to land,’’ he said.

‘‘Are we looking at further decreases in the future? We don’t know.’’

Primary and intermediate schools are facing the largest roll decline.

Provisional funding for more than 355 primary and intermediate full-time teaching positions has been axed nationwide heading into 2023.

Ministry of Education spokesperson Sean Teddy said that the fall was to be expected and is ‘‘due to relatively larger birth cohorts moving from primary school into secondary schooling’’.

But secondary school rolls haven’t grown as those students moved through – they’ve shrunk by 2180 students and secondary schools have lost funding for more than 18 teaching positions in 2023.

Vaughan Couillault, president of the Secondary Principals’ Association, believes it’s down to kids leaving school for work.

‘‘I could rattle off a dozen kids who I would have expected to stay in school that left in the first term,’’ he said.

‘‘They’re leaving to enter the workforce because they need to for their families or the call of earning an income is too loud to ignore.’’

Couillault said these jobs can be really positive, but when students leave early to become breadwinners he is concerned they are ‘‘sacrificing an education’’.

Pat Newman, head of Tai Tokerau Principals’ Association, said roll decreases could also be linked to the 8509 students under 16 who are missing from the education system.

‘‘When we stayed home during Covid, families thought, ‘We can educate the children, we don’t need teachers.’

‘‘You have to make a choice between petrol and a loaf of bread. Rentals, housing, mortgages and also your wellbeing – all those things impact children’s ability to be in school.’’

Auckland is losing almost 100 full-time teaching jobs. This is followed by Wellington and the Bay of Plenty with 59.6 and 57.7 teaching positions respectively.

In the South Island, Otago and Nelson are losing 32 teaching jobs each.

The only region which has not lost any teachers is Whanganui, which has gained almost 22 new full-time positions.

Teddy said some schools may not be able to fill positions and others may choose to spend the funding elsewhere.

‘‘We tend to overestimate staffing to enable schools to gradually manage large reductions in their rolls from year to year, and most schools can manage minor to moderate fluctuations in staffing,’’ he said.

Teddy stressed funding may increase throughout next year if school rolls increase.

‘‘Staffing entitlements are confirmed the following March, after schools and kura return their actual roll information. If a confirmed roll is higher than its provisional roll, it will receive an increase to its staffing entitlement.’’

The National School Projections forecasts a steady decline in students from 2024 onwards.

‘‘We expect the total national roll to decrease by 0.17% in 2024 compared to the projected 2023 roll, and for it to decrease a further 1.6% by 2027.

‘‘We encourage any school leaders who are concerned about the impacts of their projected rolls to get in touch with us,’’ Teddy said.