The bad, the good, the inconsistent
Which All Blacks team will turn up in Cardiff?
If you’ve been plotting the trends of this All Blacks season you might want to head to the TAB for an investment opportunity.
Ian Foster’s men are certainly due a strong showing when they run out against Wayne Pivac’s Wales under the roof in Cardiff tomorrow.
Since they lost back-to-back tests against Ireland in July to cough up a 1-0 series lead, the All Blacks have backed up stumbles with standout performances. Unerringly so. They got pumped by the Boks in Mbombela – then stunned the world champions the next week at Ellis Park.
They imploded to a home defeat to Argentina in Christchurch – then scorched the Pumas 53-3 in Hamilton just seven days later. And they were only saved from an embarrassing defeat to the Wallabies in Melbourne by a bizarre late call from French referee Mathieu Raynal – then turned round and smashed the Aussies 40-14 at Eden Park.
Now, here we have Foster’s men fresh off a bumbling, nearly humbling, 38-31 victory over Japan in Tokyo that saw the Brave Blossoms roar back from a 21-3 deficit to take the game to the wire. If the formline holds, there should be a response as the coach sends out his top lineup – several of whom have not played since the September 24 victory over the Wallabies – to take on the Welsh at a full Principality Stadium.
There may need to be. Pivac has picked what appears a strong group who will have noted the All Blacks’ struggles this season, and will fancy their chances of joining a growing list of countries making history at the New Zealanders’ expense. It is 69 years, and 32 tests, since the Red Dragons last defeated their rivals from down under, but it’s a challenge that looks achievable in 2022.
If the good All Blacks turn up – and, really, who knows what we’re going to get from a group that has mixed the sublime with the ridiculous this year – they should take care of business.
Wales haven’t played since July, have a trio of key men (skipper Justin Tipuric, fullback Leigh Halfpenny and hooker Ken Owens) returning from long international absences and send out a debutant (Rio Dyer) on the wing. As much as the All Blacks are still shaking off the rust from a fallow month post-Rugby Championship, you have to figure there will be fluency issues for the home side.
But can Foster’s best players take up where they left off in the championship? That will be the plan as the coach sends out a lineup bearing as much resemblance as possible to the group that towelled up the Aussies. Lock Scott Barrett, No 6 Shannon Frizell and wing Sevu Reece are the only starting changes from that night – and all three bring plenty of experience to the table.
The All Blacks are missing veteran forwards Brodie Retallick (suspended) and Sam Cane (fractured cheekbone) but Barrett and Dalton Papalii are form replacements. Foster has also decided to bring his find of the year, dynamic hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho, off the bench, but again has an able starter in Codie Taylor.
There is a lot on these next three tests, wrapping up with Scotland and England over the following weekends. The All Blacks are desperate to string quality performances together to conclude a challenging year. There is also the certain matter of a looming World Cup and some momentum, form and confidence to establish.
There’s a theory that these matches provide a perfect World Cup dress-rehearsal. To win the Webb Ellis Trophy you have to string together three straight knockout victories; and prevailing at Principality Stadium, Murrayfield and Twickenham would represent a similar sort of achievement.
Foster, though, isn’t so sure. ‘‘In some ways I guess it simulates that, and in some ways it doesn’t,’’ said the coach. ‘‘We’re still just under 12 months out, and as a team we’re just excited about the here and now. But it is a good experience to play three big tests in a row, to get used to that sort of pressure and how you adapt and adjust each week.
‘‘We’re excited by this one. There’s always a lot of passion in the crowd and we know they demand 100% attitude and commitment from you.
‘‘They know their game, they play high-tempo, they’re very confident in what they do and they’re physical, with strong ball-carriers, and a lot of carry-clean type rugby. They also quite like the aerial game, so we see a nice mix in that area.’’
So what will Foster want to see from his men? His forwards going forward, for starters, dominating at the set piece, hitting hard on the drive, winning the collisions, providing quick, quality ball and putting the Welsh under pressure.
Sounds simple. And if the All Blacks follow the formline, and bounce back to their best, it should be.