An exit from Brexit
If the British Labour Party wants power, Jeremy Corbyn needs to abandon ideas of leaving the EU, argues Robert Patman.
If the British Labour Party wants power, Jeremy Corbyn needs to abandon the idea of leaving the EU, argues Robert Patman.
British Prime Minister Theresa May faces growing pressure to reconsider her stance on Brexit as negotiations begin with the European Union, but the opposition Labour Party cannot afford to be complacent on this issue. Labour’s back-from-the brink performance in the snap election – whose outcome has been dubbed a “political earthquake” – has attracted national and international attention.
Written off as unelectable, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn defied his many critics and conducted what was widely seen as an authentic and energetic election campaign. It made a refreshing contrast with the scripted and evasive approach of Conservative leader May.
But even though May’s di s as t r ous c ampaign helped to wipe out the Conservatives’ majority in Parliament, the Tories still won 56 more seats than the major opposition party.
Corbyn says Labour remains in “permanent campaign mode” in readiness for the next general election, but more of the same may not be enough to beat the Tories next time. In fact, the Corbyn leadership must now face some hard truths about the recent surge in support for Labour and what needs to be done strategically to give Labour a political cutting edge.
During the campaign, the Labour leadership largely avoided the subject of Brexit – the most important challenge facing the UK since World War II – and what it did say was ambiguous.
Corbyn said he favoured a “jobs Brexit” and rejected May’s “disastrous” threat to leave the EU with “no deal” if the UK failed to negotiate an acceptable free-trade agreement with Brussels.
At the same time, Corbyn and his close associate John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, seemed to confirm that Labour supported the Tory hard-Brexit policy of leaving the European single market – which accounts for 44% of British exports and about three million jobs in the UK – and the EU customs union.
A QUID EACH WAY
The beauty of Labour’s approach to Brexit was that it appealed to both sides of the divide.
For Remainers, and the majority of young voters are in this category, the Labour leadership seemed to signal a much softer Brexit than the one championed by May.
For Leavers, Corbyn reassured them the Labour Party would respect the outcome of last year’s referendum.
However, it will become increasingly difficult for the Corbyn leadership to sustain its two-sided approach to Brexit.
First, the surge of support for Labour during the election was partly due to many Remain voters – confronted with the constraints of a first-past-the-post electoral system – believing the best way to stop May’s hard Brexit was to back Corbyn’s party.
Labour’s vote share increased by 12 points in the strongest Remain-voting areas and led
The beauty of Labour’s approach to Brexit during the election battle was that it appealed to both sides of the divide.
to some remarkable gains by Labour in such places as Kensington. If Corbyn retains his hard-Brexit manifesto commitment, he risks alienating the Remainers who voted Labour, particularly if the weakened May leadership embraces a new soft-Brexit approach.
Second, the Labour leadership has to shelve the idea that a narrow 3.8-percentage-point margin of victory for the Leave camp in a non-binding referendum on EU membership a year ago constitutes a permanent expression of “democratic will”. It does not.
Many of the pledges made by the Leave leadership in June 2016, such as huge funding increases for the National Health Service and significant reductions in immigration, have little prospect of being implemented, and so people who voted Leave have the right to change their mind, too.
Besides, Corbyn is not suggesting that the Tory election victory on June 8 is a
democratic outcome that cannot be challenged. Indeed, he said he hopes to reverse that result with a Labour victory in another general election within six months.
Third, the Labour leadership must break with the illusions of the Tories and frankly acknowledge the serious impact Brexit is already having on the country’s living standards and international reputation. Sterling is 19% lower against the euro than it was in 2015, inflation has risen to 2.9% and prices of the products the UK imports are soaring.
Meanwhile, a growing number of national and international firms in London are now looking to relocate their business premises to other European countries, which will mean the loss of thousands of jobs in the UK.
NO SUCH THING AS GOOD BREXIT
These negative economic trends will only intensify in the months ahead – which is why May went for an early general election – and the Labour leadership will pay a big political price if it pretends in the face of these realities that Brexit can still be a good thing.
Labour has to shelve the idea that a slim margin of victory for the Leave camp is a permanent expression of “democratic will”.
As it is, the Tory and Labour leaderships have made themselves laughing stocks in the world for not recognising an obvious truth – outside the EU, the UK is both less valuable to other countries and less able to fight for its own interests.
It is time for Corbyn to recognise there is no such thing as a good Brexit – hard, soft or no deal – and that the key to winning the next general election is to abandon support for a course of action that threatens the interests of the many, but not the few, in the UK.
By coming out in opposition to Brexit, the Labour leadership will establish a clear point of difference with the Tories on this burning issue and will demonstrate that, unlike the Tories, Labour can put the national interest first.