Psychology
Labour’s Jacinda Ardern has her work cut out, but then so did Helen Clark.
Why Labour’s new leader, Jacinda Ardern, has her work cut out for her.
The state of democracy – and in particular how to increase electoral engagement and participation – was in the spotlight at Victoria University at the start of the month. As part of the Democracy Week events, I chaired a debate of Wellington-area political candidates and party representatives.
Second up, Labour finance spokesman Grant Robertson. “As you saw yesterday,” he said referring to Labour’s leadership change, “the Labour Party has found a great way to make politics engaging.” It was a fantastic way to kill the elephant in the room, to much applause and laughter.
Sir Edmund Hillary would no doubt have forgiven new Labour leader Jacinda Ardern any trepidation she feels about the mountain ahead of her. This close to an election, she clearly got a hospital pass, but it’s also a bit of a no-loss situation for her and any aspirations. How much can she and her party do before the September 23 election? The logic to retaining Andrew Little as leader to bear the brunt of the looming defeat was outweighed by the risk of Labour being ground into electoral dust, with little of the party to salvage. It may not be good, but it almost certainly won’t be as bad as it could have been.
Political scientist Jack Vowles reminded me that Helen Clark led Labour to a loss in 1996 but survived to become one of our longest-serving prime ministers.
It is also important to point out that Clark was a woman. This is important for several reasons. Research on the recent US election shows that although racism may have played a part in President Donald Trump’s election, sexism was more than a best-supportingactor nominee. But I think New Zealand is a different beast. During her time as Prime Minister, Clark was joined by a suite of formidably competent women in a clean sweep of powerful positions: Jenny Shipley as Opposition leader, Dame Silvia Cartwright as Governor-General, Sian Elias as Chief Justice and Margaret Wilson as Attorney-General. The idea of a female premier doesn’t horrify as many New Zealanders as I suspect it does Americans.
Like most democracies, this country has historically demonstrated a significant gender gap in voting – men are more likely than women to vote for National and other rightleaning parties, whereas women are more likely to vote for parties of the left. With Jo
Tui White, I looked at this in a 2010 research paper, and once you factor out women’s greater interest in fairness and equality, the gender gap goes away – women show this tendency because the parties of the left are more consistent with their values.
Ardern isn’t the only female political leader, of course, but Labour is still the second-biggest player, and that means female voters have more reason than previously to vote Labour. Her rise also gives Labour a point of contrast with National, because since Shipley’s own usurpation, it has been led by moreaffluent-than-average middle-aged white men.
Which isn’t to say that being a female in politics – and a new party leader – is a barrel of fun. Ardern has
The idea of a female premier doesn’t horrify as many New Zealanders as I suspect it does Americans.
a short time to stamp her credibility on the election. She has the advantage of having been in politics a while, but now she will come in for a different form of scrutiny. Prime Minister Bill English has the advantage of being an experienced hand on our economic tiller, and some people will rest easier in that knowledge. So Ardern has to demonstrate her competence without alienating potential voters by coming across as Margaret Thatcher-like. She’ll need to balance smiles and steel.
I wouldn’t stick my neck out and predict a Jeremy Corbyn-like rise from the ashes, but if two days are a long time in politics, a lot can happen between now and election day.