Jane Clifton
Australia’s prime minister has mocked our Covid-elimination strategy, but we’re faring quite well, thanks, cobber.
When your neighbour’s in trouble, you don’t think twice. You lend a hand. So a big “onya!” is due to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison for observing that our latest Covid move is akin to living in a cave. Given Australia’s calamitous handling of the Delta variant outbreak, it was supremely gallant of him to tickle up trans-Tasman rivalries at his own expense like that. The Delta strain has been ripping through our neighbour with all the butt-crack-flashing rudeness of the unruly British tourists of 2019. The political response has been a chaotic Hokey Tokey of states putting themselves into purdah, and rackety gangs of citizens putting themselves out again and shaking it all about.
Still, it’s a little troubling that New Zealand is getting a reputation for ovine docility, staying meekly at home when mummy says, and believing in the fairy tale that Covid can be eliminated.
From Kiwis being the world’s kind, plucky darlings last year, it now feels as though everyone is scoffing at our neuroticism and insularity. A global press statement clarifying the situation seems in order, to the effect of, “Anchorite Kingdom North of Antarctica Reopens for Bookings Soon. New Zealand: Now 100% Paranoia-Free!”
“Soon” may be over-egging it, as this lockdown shows signs of being longer than is comfortable or easily affordable. But by year’s end, there will likely be optimal domestic vaccination and, provided we can add efficient pre-entry testing and vaxdocumentation systems, the Covid curtain could be raised quite quickly. There’s a Greek chorus of pessimism about this here, and there’s certainly a lot still to fret over: vaccine slowness, gross inequities in quarantine access, tracing-app complacency, inflation, s shortages of practically everything, uncertainty over booster shots and whow could possibly replace Duncan Garner on The AM Show?
But there’s no reason tot think this lockdown won’t be as wellabided as those previously, or that Covid precautions shouldn’t move from tolerated to normalised.
A general global consensus is emerging about what permanent precautions are necessary, and all but the most devout conspiracists will soon see them as a fact of life.
ZERO DEATHS
What the “smug Kiwis take a tumble” coverage misses is that not only have our style of lockdowns been shorter than those of most developed countries, but also they’ve worked, curtailing viral spread, and with the unexpected bonus of not tanking the economy.
The rest of the world may believe New Zealand cannot do without it, but in terms of tourism, at least, it appears – to the lasting incredulity of economists and the less educated alike – that we can for the time being. The economy is roaring. As for the much-mocked elimination strategy, its practical meaning has changed. We started with the idealistic goal of zero Covid, but that has now unofficially been scaled back to zero Covid deaths. It’s now clear even fully vaccinated people can catch and transmit the virus, but vaccination dramatically reduces the infection’s severity and mortality.
Contrary to the impression abroad, no one here believes we can repel Covid the way St Patrick drove the snakes from Ireland.
It would be helpful, at least in hosing down intemperate commentary, if the Government clarified these points. It’s not just that we look undeservedly silly, but we also risk falling off people’s bucket lists, delaying the return of overseas tourists, students and skilled migrants.
The Government seems to fear any retreat from the bald “elimination” message would be confusing. Not for the first time, it underestimates people’s intelligence and patience. That lockdown is so readily accepted, even now, shows that Professor Shaun Hendy’s advanced modelling of Delta spread is well understood, even in a country of sub-par maths and science attainment. That even the glacial pace of vaccination here is not causing massive poll ructions suggests New Zealanders also understand
Our style of lockdowns has been shorter than those of most developed countries, with the unexpected bonus of not tanking the economy.
the limited bargaining power a remote, tiny population has with pharmaceutical multinationals, and against bigger countries.
It’s a severe embarrassment that our vaccination rates are so low by world standards. But the counterfactual is of little comfort. We could probably have secured much more vaccine much earlier had we paid silly money. But the Government would then be in the gun not only for poor deal making, but also for pushing in ahead of less-well-off countries being overrun by the virus while our infection rates barely breached triple digits.
Tellingly, Australia is not that much further ahead with vaccination. So much traffic to and from New Zealand goes to or through Australia that we could be sitting here with every last citizen inoculated to the gills, but unable to go anywhere much until our neighbours catch up.
WINS AND LOSSES
In summary, New Zealanders have had more freedom and fewer Covid cases and deaths than most other countries and we remain in a globally enviable debt and economic-growth position. (We must keep repeating that last bit, because it’s such an unexpected outcome that it’s still very hard to believe, and we need to absolutely bask in it while it’s still true.)
Being such a low-transmission zone also gave us the advantage of time to assess the vaccines that were proving the most effective. We seem to have chosen well.
The Ministry of Health (MoH) does not, however, emerge as a beacon of global admiration. When the ultimate autopsy is done on our pandemic stewardship, the standout failures will likely be the MoH’s gnomic refusal to harness saliva testing in a timely fashion – or at all, if it had its way – or to instigate a comprehensive “Covid Card” tracing system. Its incomprehensible failure to increase intensivecare capacity won’t look too flash, either.
Had these measures been implemented with as much bold decisiveness as lockdowns, we would be having more trouble with toxic smugness now than with Delta.
A backhanded sign of this country’s pandemic success is the regular kilometres of cars queuing for Covid tests. It’s another mortifying systemic
The kilometres of cars queuing for tests reflect a mortifying systemic failure, but also an admirable sense of civic responsibility.
failure that they should have to, but rather like Americans queuing for many hours last year to vote, it shows an admirable sense of civic responsibility.
Admittedly, the Americans risked harassment and guns, while queuers here merely risk burst bladders and boredom. But if this is, as ScoMo says, cave dwelling, it’s looking pretty evolutionarily adaptive. l