By-election looks cheap at $1m
TALKING POLITICS
OPINION: On one level, the decision by Dr Guarav Sharma to trigger a by- election in Hamilton West looks like a rare political example of turkeys voting for an early Christmas. Yet Sharma had no good options left to him.
His shelf life as a credible victim was eroding by the day. So was his ability as an independent to achieve very much for his constituents.
Should he leave now in one last blaze of publicity? Or should he spend the next 12 months in a doomed struggle for survival likely to end with him vanishing unnoticed amidst the election night brouhaha?
Causing a by-election that the Labour government did not want seems to have been the final act of defiance left to him.
Not surprisingly, the byelection is also being treated as a foretaste of what Election 2023 may deliver, nationwide. Famously, Hamilton West is New Zealand’s most reliable bellwether seat, having reflected the overall national result in 17 out of the 18 elections held since the electorate made its debut at the 1969 election.
However, the fabled’’ Red Tide’’ of 2020 that swept Sharma into Parliament was a highwater mark.
Even Labour strategists must have been surprised to win the seat with a majority of 6267. This margin was a by-product of two unique events: the peak popularity of the government’s Covid response, and the relative unpopularity of the National Party’s then-leader, Judith Collins.
Labour will struggle to hold Hamilton West, given its waning popularity, and the spoiler role Sharma will still play in siphoning off some of the centreleft vote.
Already last week, Labour was painting itself as the ‘‘underdog.’’ In all likelihood, the significance of the looming byelection may be measured not by whether Labour holds Hamilton West, but by the size of its loss.
The other noteworthy aspect of the Hamilton West result will be in the signal this may send to budding National Party candidates around the country.
Should they go all out for the electorate nomination, or seek a high position on the party list?
Clearly, if National can chalk up a resounding win in Hamilton West, there will be little need for any political aspirant to seek the safety of the list.
If a deficit of 6267 can be overturned, almost every Labour-held seat in the country will conceivably be in play. More to the point: if the Blue Wall in the electorates gets totally rebuilt, very few of those new faces on the party list may make it into Parliament at all.
In that way, National could be able to go into Election 2023 enjoying the best of both worlds.
It can respond to the usual criticisms that it is mainly a party of rural white conservative men by ensuring that its party list shows a symbolic increase in diversity – even though the extent of its likely victories in the electorates would probably see relatively few of those list MPs actually make it into Parliament.
The Hamilton West byelection is being estimated to cost about $1 million. Given the mileage the media pundits are likely to make out of it, that’s cheap at the price.