FEDERATION OF MOTORING CLUBS

With the rise of electric vehicles, will fossil fuels still be around so we can continue running our classic cars and motorcycles?

All classic motoring enthusiasts will have been reassured to learn the Climate Change Commission has acknowledged the use of liquid fuels in at least some transport vehicles must be maintained. It is even endorsing continuing production and further development of alternatives to fossil fuels.

But in our response to the commission’s draft advice report to the Government the FoMC has requested additional assurances that ‘going electric’ will not be required for heritage vehicles, and that biofuels (specifically ‘drop-in’ synthetic fuels and e-fuels) should be made available for them as well.

As the full extent of the heritage motoring community in New Zealand has not yet been accurately assessed, we included the figures from the latest Federation of British Historic Vehicle Clubs (FBHVC) Historic Vehicle Survey in the UK. With 1.5 million vehicles owned by nearly 700,000 enthusiasts, heritage motoring in the UK makes a $14 billion contribution to the national economy each year and provides jobs for 34,000 people. But average mileages covered each year account for less than 0.2 per cent of the total miles driven on UK roads and therefore they make only a minimal contribution to CO2 emissions.

On a per capita basis, New Zealand has a larger and more vibrant heritage motoring sector, with perhaps as many as a third of the number of enthusiasts in the UK. So in New Zealand, classic motoring is most likely making a contribution of several billion dollars a year to the NZ economy.

Surveys indicate our affiliated members alone own more than $6 billion worth of heritage vehicles, which could become progressively valueless if the supply of fossil fuels or usable alternatives was to end. So we argued that this would be a disproportionate loss of community value in order to achieve infinitesimal reductions in emissions.

ENERGY USE

New Zealand households consume around 25kwh of power per day, which totals approximately 8000 to 9000kwh per annum. By and large an electric vehicle consumes around 15kwh per 100km so will use around 3000kwh per annum. On average, homeowners converting from ICE vehicles to EVs will increase their annual domestic power consumption by up to 33 per cent or even more.

Yet in its draft report the Commission contends just a 20 per cent increase in generation capacity by 2035 would be sufficient to meet the needs of both industry and electric vehicles. According to Statistics New Zealand’s last Energy Use Survey, in the eight years between 2010 and 2018 industrial sector electricity consumption effectively tripled from 7500 million kilowatt hours to more than 20,000 million. And this increase preceded the commitments to replace coalfired heating in all schools and Fonterra’s processing plants.

Instigated by the then Minister David Parker, the report, NZ Energy Strategy to 2050, forecast a need for another 3900MW of generation to meet growth demands. But of the new generation projects listed in the report, more than 1000MW are dependent on geothermal or gas, both of which have now been ruled out as energy sources by the Commission.

On the basis of admittedly cursory research it would appear the Commission’s conclusions that just a 20 per cent increase in annual electricity generation will be more than sufficient is likely to prove excessively optimistic.

As the global supply of EVs will not meet the overall demand in the foreseeable future, we suggested allowing wider use of biofuels by heritage vehicles and other users may offer a more sensible solution to reducing emissions from the much larger existing fleet. We also urged the Commission to include greater recognition of the role that biofuels and synthetic (or ‘drop-in’) fuels (including e-fuels) could play in decarbonising transport in its report.

Permitting ongoing access to alternative liquid fuels and ICE vehicles in the decades immediately ahead will reduce the pressure for costly or unaffordable investment in upgrading electricity generation and supply. It will also provide an alternative for the increasing numbers of New Zealanders in our major cities who are being subjected to regulator changes that are depriving them of access to off-street parking and any opportunity to recharge their EV batteries overnight.