Preparing for an El Niño dry
Farmers must prepare for a dry that El Niño may bring to parts of the North Island, experts say. Niwa declared an El Niño event earlier this year. In an El Niño climate cycle, ocean water off South America to the central tropical Pacific warms above average. The warming takes place as trade winds weaken or even reverse, blowing warm water from the western Pacific towards the east.
An El Niño typically means stronger or more frequent winds from the west in summer, which can mean dryness in eastern areas and more rain in the west. In winter, the winds tend to blow from the south, causing colder temperatures across the country.
Dairynz general manager farm performance Sarah Speight said, “the potential El Niño weather pattern may bring a moderate to potentially severe drought across most of the North Island and east coast of the South Island, while westerly winds and more rain is predicted for western areas.”
Early preparation helped farmers achieve better outcomes later in the season when the potential dry weather was on them, Speight said.
With reduced milk prices, dairy farmers already faced high costs, and a potential drought added further challenges.
“Planning now for a possible summer feed deficit is important, to identify the most cost-effective way to meet a shortfall.
“Options for increasing feed supply include strategic use of nitrogen to boost pasture production to lengthen rotation or harvest surplus, buying supplementary feed, planting summer crops and considering deferred grazing as an option,” she said.
“Dairy farmers can reduce demand by exiting known culls or graze off any surplus stock in a timely manner.”
Farmers had to grow and use as much pasture as possible, as it was the cheapest source of feed, she said.
Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s extension manager for the Eastern North Island, Mark
Harris, said this season was looking similar to 2019-20 when a drought was declared.
Farmers also need a plan B in place, and set dates for taking certain actions, he said. “Use a feed plan to help set the trips that will set those actions off. For example, if your feed cover is below a certain level on a certain date, you will sell steers.”
Connecting with every person down the line from the farm was important. “Connect with your processor. Check what space might be like. Talk to your bank early, because if you start to sell there are big financial implications.”
Farms recovering from Cyclone Gabrielle already carried extra costs, Harris said.
Mental health was important in times of dry, he said. In the 1989 drought his mental health had suffered considerably because he isolated himself. “Make sure you build a [support] team around you.”
In Hawke’s Bay, the regional council ran a drought indicator. “You can click on the weather station down the road and it will indicate how many days to stress point, if rain doesn’t come.”
B+LNZ had drought toolkits available online, Harris said.■