Sky’s Tony Johnson gets out his crystal ball and has a guess at what the All Blacks will look like in 2015.
TONY JOHNSON IS A COMMENTATOR AND PRESENTER FOR SKY TV’S RUGBY COVERAGE IN NEW ZEALAND.
Don’t look now, but there’s an elephant making his way through the front gate and before you know it he’ll be just over there, in the corner of the room.
Yes we are almost, nearly, only a year out from Rugby World Cup 2015. Already.
If the All Blacks are indeed in some kind of build- up mode, the Steinlager Series in June was not a bad start.
England came looking for a boost, in the way Clive Woodward did back in 2003, but were sent away without having progressed their own game and without landing any meaningful blows in the All Blacks direction.
But while the All Blacks did just enough to throw the odd doubt England’s way, what about their own situation? The June sweep did enough to silence for the moment those who think this team has had its best days, but there must still be a question mark over one or two senior citizens.
The recent trend of the All Black selectors is to develop the team with careful integration and minimal chopping and changing.
So you’d imagine they already have the bulk of their World Cup squad penciled in, with room for only a few to be added or crossed out over the next 12 months.
There’ll be five props, with the IRB set to allow 31 players per squad to accommodate the need for two specialists on the bench.
Owen Franks and Charlie Faumuina are certainties for tighthead. Tony Woodcock is one whose longevity has been questioned, but he was outstanding in Hamilton and should still be good enough. Wyatt Crockett has been known to fall foul of the odd referee, but is unlikely to be left out this time.
That will leave one. Ben Franks can play both sides which is still an advantage, but he has drifted onto the outside fringe. Jeffrey Toomaga- Allen will be pushing hard, and they like Joe Moody.
Dane Coles has established himself as starting hooker, having stacked on some extra kilos at the selectors’ request and, after a few months, learned how to play with them.
After that, it’s clouded. Keven Mealamu will probably still be there, but age and his traitorous calves are potential issues, especially as no- one else has made any sort of case for inclusion.
They’ll almost certainly take a third hooker, presumably one of Liam Coltman, Rhys Marshall, or Nathan Harris, but it’s wide open and something of a worry.
Not so the situation at lock. In Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick New Zealand has a duo as good as any in the world, with the only concern being the possibility of injury, which will increase if they continue to clock the sort of minutes demanded of them this year in Super Rugby.
Patrick Tuipulotu is literally going from strength to strength, and is probably number three now, even pending the return of Luke Romano. Jeremy Thrush and Romano offer two good options for one spot. The return of Jerome Kaino, straight back to his monstrous form of 2011, has been a lightning bolt of good news for the loose forward stocks. Kieran Read’s head issues will remain a concern, so it’ll be fingers crossed there. Richie McCaw is a cert.
But with three hookers and five props needed there may only be room for five loosies. So it’s McCaw, Read, Kaino, and two others. Liam Messam has been a regular but will need to prove he’s still better than Victor Vito and Steven Luatua.
Unlike 2011, when a replacement number seven was only an hour away, a specialist back- up for McCaw might be required, in which case Sam Cane will probably get the nod.
So it might be bad news for the excellent Vito and for Luatua, whose only hope apart from an injury to someone else might be that they go with just three specialist locks and a flanker who can slot into the second row, but that’s unlikely.
Apart from the obvious choice of Aaron Smith, halfback may not be as cut and dried as it appears. TJ Perenara and Tawera Kerr- Barlow have had the inside run, but Bryn Hall made a huge impression in a spluttering Blues outfit and Augustine Pulu is very strong and a tad underrated. By next year Hall in particular might be challenging very strongly.
Going on past World Cups they’ll need four first- fives, but will try and get by with just three. Three, you ask, in a back division of 14?
But can you really see them trying to weed out one of Daniel Carter, Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett? The way around the debate will be that Barrett can do a job at fullback, even if it forces a compromise elsewhere.
Midfield is interesting. The return of Sonny Bill Williams is apparently a formality, Ma’a Nonu will be there of course, and Malakai Fekitoa is being groomed. And then there’s the other bloke, right? The great traffic controller Conrad Smith is seen as a certainty, but he has yet to commit to a new contract. Just saying.
The positions of fullback and wing no longer exist in team selection. They are now collectively the back three, because of the requirement of similar skill sets. It also makes it easier to pick a platoon, but if there are going to be three halfbacks and three first- fives, there will only be four specialist ‘ back three’ players.
So there’s the all star trio of Ben Smith, Israel Dagg and Julian Savea plus Charles Piutau. Barrett gives extra cover at fullback and Fekitoa or even SBW could comfortably do a job on the wings.
Done…. unless of course Richard Kahui comes back, plays well and manages to keep his shoulders superglued together. That could be a wild card.
It does seem though, that the team is 90 per cent set, and there is just that big question mark over the number three hooker, and smaller ones over halfback and loose forward. And it would be nice if they got that Conrad Smith signature all sorted.