It is one year until the World Cup. We look at how the All Blacks and other leading teams are placed.
GREGOR PAUL LOOKS AT HOW 2015 IS SHAPING UP WITH ONE YEAR TO GO AND SAYS THE GREATEST THREAT TO THE ALL BLACKS IN THEIR BID TO BECOME THE FIRST TEAM TO RETAIN THE WORLD CUP IS SUSPICIOUS EVENTS DESIGNED TO FRUSTRATE THEM.
Ayear out from the World Cup is usually about the time the All Blacks have to battle against being gripped by an unhealthy sense of paranoia. The closer the tournament gets, the more it seems the rest of the world is conspiring to derail them.
Seriously, it’s starting to get beyond spooky how things play out in this regard. So much has happened that it’s not those spouting conspiracy theories that come across as deluded and fanciful, but those who dismiss them.
Events have a nasty habit of conspiring against the All Blacks - as if the rest of the world is working in collaboration to make sure they come unstuck at the World Cup.
This whole business of sabotage began in 1995 – or allegedly began then with the food poisoning allegations. The All Blacks, having swept to the final after crushing everything in their path, were suddenly sluggish and jaded against the Boks and fell to the most painful 15- 12 defeat after extra time.
It was only in the days after that word began to leak out that the whole squad had been violently ill 24 hours before kick- off. Inevitably, allegations were made that the illness was the direct result of deliberate food poisoning.
“It was just an amazing sequence of events and coincidence that, of our 35- man party that ate at that particular lunch venue in the hotel, about 27 of them went down in the space of 12 hours,” said coach Laurie Mains.
“You can read what you like into that, but I don’t think it was coincidence ... I don’t have any doubts that it left many of them pretty flat and I think that was a significant factor in us just not quite having the urgency and speed in our game.”
The 1999 and 2003 tournaments passed without suspicion – largely because the All Blacks hadn’t looked untouchable in the intervening years. But 2007 – that was a different matter. The All Blacks had only lost three of their last 32 tests leading into that tournament. In 2006, they had been just
about invincible – one random loss to South Africa aside – they played pass and catch football with pace and precision and no one could see how they couldn’t win in France.
Admittedly they did much to kill their own momentum with endless rotation and the ill- fated reconditioning programme in the months before, but there were plenty of external factors that were inconveniently put in their path once they got to France.
It was one of the unexplained curiosities of that tournament that the All Blacks had to play a pool game in Edinburgh and a quarter- final in Cardiff. The biggest draw card in the game – the number one seeds and strong favourites – and they had to go to the outposts that were given a couple of games each in return for voting in France as hosts.
There was the fiasco with the jerseys when they played Scotland. The Scots had lied when they submitted their away jersey to the IRB before the tournament. The one they actually played against the All Blacks in was almost identical to New Zealand’s and there was the absolute farce of a colour clash.
The All Blacks – Daniel Carter specifically – wasn’t too happy that he’d been given the wrong balls to practise with before the game. The previous week, the IRB had wandered into the changing room before the All Blacks played Portugal and asked them to go easy in the scrums. There was genuine concern about serious injury being inflicted. The World Cup... and the All Blacks were asked to take it easy.
The atrocity of the hugely inexperienced Wayne Barnes being appointed referee doesn’t need to be relived here – suffice to say it was a terrible decision to give him such a big game.
Order was restored in 2011 and the All Blacks were unimpeded as hosts to finally end their agony of 24 years without a title. But the portents aren’t good that 2015 will deliver such a smooth ride.
For a start, the All Blacks have drawn another soft pool just as they did in 2007. Argentina, Tonga, Georgia and Namibia will leave them a little underdone in the play- offs.
There is the eerie repeat of the All Blacks again having to play a quarterfinal in Cardiff. It’s kind of crazy. The 1999 World Cup was hosted by Wales and New Zealand were knocked out in London.
The 2007 tournament was hosted by France and New Zealand were knocked out in Wales. And now they face the unpalatable prospect of once again exiting a tournament in Wales when England are hosts.
Of more concern is their growing belief that referees have premeditated ideas about how the All Blacks play. For the better part of the last decade, Richie McCaw has been accused of being a cheat. Could referees now be listening to that? The All Blacks, in their last 15 tests, aren’t far off averaging a yellow card per game.
They have rarely been on the right side of the penalty count in those 15 tests and they truly wonder whether a directive has been issued from upon high to take some wind out of their sails.
It is curious that a team so dominant – so in control of opponents so regularly concedes more penalties than the team they have under constant pressure.
Perhaps the All Blacks are playing at a pace that makes them more prone to infringing or perhaps they are lacking in discipline. It’s hard, though, for them not to wonder whether deep down, somewhere, somehow the seed has been planted in a lot of different minds that the All Blacks need to be reined in before the World Cup.
The tournament has too much riding on it for it to be all about one team. It needs drama as much as it needs spectacle and who doesn’t love a tournament that comes complete with conspiracy theorists? It would be lovely to have a laugh at all this paranoia and conjecture and kick these outlandish ideas to touch. Except already the 2015 World Cup organisers have fuelled the fire.
At the official ticket launch in early September, the organisers unveiled their promotional video. It was the usual high quality, emotive production featuring a famous actor, fans and players designed to encourage people not to miss out.
There was, though, one giant omission: no footage of any All Blacks or any New Zealanders. They are only the holders and only the team that has been ranked number one in the world since 2009.
A deliberate snub? Not so said England Rugby’s Joanna Manning- Cooper. “In the film, one parent of the little boy who squeezes between his parents’ legs is an All Black fan - you may need to look more closely than usual as the tournament brand guidelines meant we had to remove the AIG sponsor branding from the New Zealand shirts. We had to shoot the film in such a way that sponsor brands which appear on the shirts of any team which aren’t official RWC sponsors, aren’t visible.”
Right now, it does indeed feel like the greatest threat to the All Blacks is something random and unfair. At their best, they are untouchable and that isn’t going to change in the next 12 months. If anything, they are going to add more weaponry to their game.
Once they get Sonny Bill Williams and Daniel Carter back to full fitness and full form... wow. Charles Piutau is another who has barely featured in 2014 and their depth is such that it is not inconceivable that players as good as Cory Jane and Luke Romano could miss out on final selection when the time comes.
Even when they are not at their best, they are still almost impossible to beat. They were dire when they played England first up in June this year and yet they scrambled to a win. They were worse when they played Australia in Sydney, but again, they managed to avoid defeat.
And the reason they escaped with a draw was their unyielding commitment. Their desire to play for each other is frightening and enables them to stay in the contest even when they are playing poorly.
New Zealand Herald columnist Justin Marshall wrote after that 12- 12 draw with the Wallabies: “The fact they were prepared to chase a win from a near impossible situation after they had been under the pump for so long, when they really had every right to be thankful for a draw, told me everything you need to know about this side and how they have built success upon success.
“They don’t have a defeatist bone in their collective body. Even when they’re confronted by the improbable they do not yield.”
Right now, it is genuinely hard to see any obvious weakness in the All Blacks. They have experience. They have quality in their tight five and enough depth to be confident they can handle injuries. They can scrummage, they have an aggressive and accurate lineout and have become adept at driving mauls.
They have talent and balance in their backline: ball players and strike runners. They are rock solid under the high ball. They can counter attack from deep, they can kick, they can chase, they can pass, they can run. They can play tight. They can play wide. They can just about do anything and everything.
No other side has such variation. England are at their best when it is wet and if they have to keep the game tight. That’s true of the Boks while Ireland and Wales can play fast and wide, just not as well as the All Blacks.
All of the contenders can win big games, but not all of them convince they can win three big games as they will have to, if they are to win the World Cup.
Winding the clock 12 months on – some say the All Blacks will be coming off the boil.
Richie McCaw will be 34. Carter may be past it by then. Ma’a Nonu and Smith won’t have enough pace and a brilliant All Black team will suddenly be torn at the seams.
New Zealanders should encourage everyone to believe this. It’s patent rubbish. Firstly, coach Steve Hansen won’t let it happen. No one will be picked on reputation and he won’t keep anyone – McCaw and Carter included – who doesn’t merit a place.
He’s not stupid nor will he compromise his over- riding principle that the team comes first.
Besides, the smart money is on McCaw and Carter to be very much at the top of their respective games this time next year. These two won’t let something as trifling as age get in their way.
Nope, the All Blacks will be as good in 12 months – if not better – than they are now. England and South Africa will most likely be, too, but only in the sense that their ability to play tight, grinding rugby will have improved.
Sabotage is, genuinely, the most serious threat as, really, the only weakness the All Blacks have is a lack of genuine depth at hooker and halfback. They are not without options there – it is just the difference between their best and second best would be more pronounced in those positions.
“We know that World Cups haven’t been razzle dazzle affairs from quarter- finals on,” says Hansen. “We genuinely believe that if we can perfect our game and get a quality of performance right across the board in all the things we are trying to do, then we will have enough tools in the tool box to be really competitive.
“People haven’t won back- to- back World Cups for a reason and a lot of that is mental. Mental fortitude hasn’t been right. Look at our 2007 side... we didn’t go there to take that World Cup by the scruff of the neck. I think we went there expecting to take it by the scruff of the neck and there is a massive difference.
“In 2011 I think that All Black group would have done whatever was needed to be done because they were so desperate to win it. We can’t hide from the fact that we have got a World Cup in the cabinet and we can’t allow that either to get in the way of trying to take another one.
“Because we have been the number one side in the world it doesn’t give us the right to rock up and think it is going to happen because we know that’s not how it works.”