HOW THE CONTENDERS STACK
With 12 months to go, NZ Rugby World looks at the relative strengths and weaknesses of the seven teams capable of winning the World Cup.
1NEW ZEALAND
STRENGTHS
• Most experienced team in history with, typically, close to 1000 caps on the field at any time
• Have a triple threat game which means they can adapt to any conditions and any opponent
• Can play shock and awe rugby at breathtaking pace and precision
• Have the most influential captain who has previously won a World Cup
WEAKNESSES
• Have a weak pool which will leave them a little underdone coming into the knock- out rounds
• Will have a higher burden of expectation than any other team • Will have to contend with inevitable external obstacles such as refereeing and other dramas
• Don’t have genuine depth at either hooker or halfback
PREDICTION ONE YEAR OUT
Win it or not, the important thing for the All Blacks is to be able to look back and feel there is nothing they would have done differently. Coach Steve Hansen has shown that it is highly unlikely he’ll take the wrong players, or pursue the wrong preparation strategy or take the wrong tactical approach. So it is with some confidence that we predict the All Blacks will give themselves the best chance possible of being the first side to win back- to- back titles. And on the basis they will nail their preparation – we predict they will win.
2SOUTH AFRICA
STRENGTHS
• Are naturally suited to tournament rugby with a lower risk game that is built on exerting pressure
• Have a devastating lineout drive and brilliant goal- kicker – two trump cards that could take them all the way
• Plenty of depth in their tight five to ensure they can withstand injuries in an area of attrition
• Are the last team to win a World Cup on foreign soil
WEAKNESSES
• May be a little old and ponderous in the forwards and overly reliant on their lineout and driving maul
• Had their scrum mangled by the Pumas and may be vulnerable against the best sides • Lack the tactical range of the All Blacks in that they can’t match New Zealand’s pass and catch width and tempo and score tries on minimal possession
• How flexible and adaptable can they be in terms of their selections, mindset and tactics?
PREDICTION ONE YEAR OUT
The Boks are a serious chance. Of course they are. They have the experience, the physicality and the composure to navigate their way through brutal, tense games. They love pressure rugby and they play it well. But they don’t have the added bonus of being able to play that bit wider and faster and chase games if they have to. They probably need one too many stars to be aligned for them to be crowned champions and they look like a team that will be edged out in the semis by the smallest of margins.
3ENGLAND
STRENGTHS
• They have home advantage and are a formidable force when they play at Twickenham
• Have a well- drilled pack and some surprisingly gifted backs which enables them to play with a bit of variation if needs be
• Stuart Lancaster and his coaching team are smart, creative and capable and have given England a sense of pride and cohesion
• England are in the group of death – if they make it out, they will be matchhardened and confident
WEAKNESSES
As hosts and with expectation through the roof – how will they cope with the pressure? • They don’t yet have a test class secondfive and looked horribly vulnerable there when they played the All Blacks in June
• Aren’t yet overly comfortable when they have to play at pace and may make the wrong tactical choices about how to play
• May not make it out of the group of death
PREDICTION ONE YEAR OUT
England are building into a confident and capable team. They have depth in all the key positions bar second- five although the conversion of Sam Burgess from league may fix that. They will have huge public support and are driven by a smart coaching team. But ultimately, they lack an element of composure, skill and decision- making the more phases they play beyond the set- piece. Will make the final – but don’t look quite good enough to win it at this stage.
4AUSTRALIA
STRENGTHS
• Have a backline that has the potential to click and score tries from long range
• Israel Folau – can just about score from anywhere on his own
• They are Australian – they have extreme confidence that will serve them well
• Are growing in confidence about the strength of their culture and belief
WEAKNESSES
• Have a tight five that is seriously underpowered
• Have a scrum that can be beaten up and destroyed by most teams
• Don’t necessarily have enough firepower on the wing
• Their kicking game is poor and inconsistent
PREDICTION ONE YEAR OUT
The Wallabies may be the surprise casualties in the group of death. Their pool is basically knock- out rugby. They have to beat at least one of Wales or England, but preferably both to be certain of progressing. Both Wales and England will be low risk and forward- orientated when they play the Wallabies and it may be that Australia can’t cope... just as they couldn’t cope when Ireland beat them in the pool round in 2011. Truthfully, they look like they could be back in Aus before October.
5WALES
STRENGTHS
• Have a well- balanced squad with a number of high quality players who have some X- factor • Have an experienced and smart coach with a history of winning
• Have self- belief having been in the semifinal of the 2011 World Cup
• Will be the ‘ big’ team in the pool of death seen by the bookies as the least likely to reach the knock- out rounds and will relish being the underdog
WEAKNESSES
• They have a habit of letting the best teams off the hook and haven’t regularly closed out games they should have won
• Don’t have a recognised world class No 10
• Inconsistent with their level of performance
• Do they have depth in certain positions to cover for what will be an inevitably high injury toll?
PREDICTION ONE YEAR OUT
Wales are a talented side, who, when they have all their best players fit, can challenge the best teams in the world. They are good enough to progress from their group and probably will. How much further they go depends on how much progress they make between now and the World Cup in developing a No 10. Ultimately they lack the ability to finish teams off – maybe its lack of confidence, but whatever, they are unlikely to develop that habit in the next 12 months and look destined to be knocked out in the quarterfinals.
6IRELAND
STRENGTHS
• Have a mobile and athletic forward
pack that can handle the best teams • Can play at frenetic pace and yet keep the precision high • Have a quality loose trio and the ability to win more than their fair share of possession at the tackled ball • Will win plenty of neutral support
WEAKNESSES
• They are erratic and prone to major form fluctuations • They don’t yet have a natural successor to Brian O’Driscoll • There are question marks over the
temperament of No 10 Johnny Sexton • Much like Wales, Ireland don’t have a
history of closing games out
PREDICTION ONE YEAR OUT
Ireland, on their day, have shown they can live with the All Blacks [ for 79 minutes and 30 seconds at least]. They can play fast and accurate football when they are on. But the question is this: how often are they on? They threatened to be something at the last World Cup but fizzled after beating Australia. That’s really their biggest problem – they have it in them to win one big game, but no more than that which is why they will bow out again in the last eight.
7SAMOA
STRENGTHS
• Behind the All Blacks and Australia, they will be the most talented side at the World Cup • Are expected to have Isaia Toeava avail
able and he’ll make a massive difference • Will not be overawed by the occasion and will play their rugby in the most natural way • Have the ability to intimidate and upset
teams with the ferocity of their defence
WEAKNESSES
• Still no guarantee they will be able to win enough ball through the set- piece • Discipline is a perennial problem • Will they be dogged by management incompetence as happened in 2011? • Are they fit enough to play for the full
80 minutes?
PREDICTION ONE YEAR OUT
Samoa are a safe enough bet to make the knock- out rounds – they basically have to beat Scotland to do that. Once they are there, they will be the team no one wants to play. Their backline could be spectacularly good and if they win enough ball, they will score points. They will defend more with passion than structure and any loose ball they will pick up and run with. They will be a bit random, a bit loose and fantastic to watch and maybe they might just sneak into the semis this time.