Sky’s Tony Johnson knows that in World Cup year only one thing matters.
Don ’t lo k now , but he’s back… over there in the corner, wearing the dark glasses and the false moustache.
Yes, its that elephant called Billy Ellis, and he’s about to start riding a unicycle round the room, knocking over vases, ruffling up the mats and photo bombing at every opportunity until he gets the limelight to himself in September.
Come November 2 not much else that has happened this year will be remembered, except maybe if the Bledisloe Cup goes west, but that’s not to say that what happens over the next seven months won’t be fascinating, and fun to watch unfold.
It is debatable how much Super Rugby or the Rugby Championship impact on the World Cup. You could argue the Bulls win in 2007 was the springboard for the Springboks, showing the way in terms of style and personnel they needed to win a tournament that was way more about attrition than it was entertainment. Elvis left the building in the quarter-finals.
New Zealand won the Tri Nations in 1999, 2003 and 2007, Australia took it in 2011 and the Rugby Championship in 2015. None of those was a portent of World Cup glory.
It’s an even easier argument for the Six Nations, given their grand total of one World Cup, but there are always compelling sub plots, with Eddie Jones protecting the stay of execution earned in November, and Ireland looking to complete their rise to the summit.
This side of the equator, Super Rugby is about to start and the scrap to get out of the New Zealand conference will be as cut-throat as ever, even if it is not quite all hands on deck for the Kiwi franchises.
Not for starters anyway, and not if any of our elite so much as breaks a finger nail.
Because that’s how it is in World Cup year. We’re not going back to the wellintentioned but badly implemented strategy of 2007, but you sense there’s going to be a lot of back room bartering.
It helps the interest levels that the team selection is not quite as cut and dried as it was this time four years ago.
An already uncomfortable five into four scenario in the midfield backs could become even more crowded if Ma’a Nonu decides to rekindle his old form. Don’t put the house on it, but he could yet make an unlikely re-entry into the frame.
Despite the insistence of the coaching staff there is a growing swell of fan opinion that the All Blacks might be best served by having both Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett on the field from the outset, and their performances will be scrutinised to the nth degree.
Can Luke Romano or Patrick Tuipulotu make a compelling case for a fourth lock? Who is the backup blindside flanker? Can Aaron Smith get his true mojo working again? Can Dane Coles continue to restore his factory setting?
Away from the All Black picture, there’ll be so much interest in whether the Blues can finally break their way out of the stranglehold of other New Zealand franchises, or clubs as we are now supposed to call them.
The organisation has done little right in recent years, but the way they changed their governance, and the way they managed the rejigging of their coaching staff offers some hope.
The talent is there, and with the quiet wisdom of Leon MacDonald, the savvy of Tom Coventry and the continuing presence of Tana Umaga as defence coach, they have a better formula. They just need better decision making.
The Chiefs have lost quality, power, experience and top line speed with Charlie Ngatai, Blues bound Karl Tu’inukuafe, Liam Messam and Toni Pulu all gone, and a lot will depend on how much they are allowed to get out of three key All Blacks in Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane and Damian McKenzie. Any time that trio is on the park they’ll be a handful for anyone.
The Hurricanes are also under new management, although Jon Plumtree has been an integral part of their success, and will have gleaned much from last year when things got openly tetchy between the All Blacks hierarchy and Chris Boyd.
Matt Proctor is one to watch, because he could make that 5/6 into four scenario even more crowded. He’s already very good, and one suspects the best is still to come.
Highlanders fans will want to make the most of Ben Smith while they’ve got him, and Smith himself will want to show he can still be the major influencer that he was four years ago.
It’s blindingly obvious that he plays best at fullback, and the Highlanders at least will allow him that, and the chance for Waisake Naholo to shine, even if the needs of the All Blacks might be different.
But of course the team they’ll all have to get past is the Crusaders.
Even if they are allowed only limited access to Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks and Joe Moody and co in the early stages at least, you wouldn’t wager too much against a three-peat.
They are so adept at integrating quality into their mix, and they have of course, in Razor Robertson, a fresh as an ocean breeze presence on the coaching scene and someone who could break through the ruck of experienced campaigners lining up for a shot at the post RWC All Blacks vacancy.
That’s a massive subplot, and even if Steve Hansen’s gesture provides clarity, it will not stop the debate over his successor.
Sir Clive Woodward is one who questioned the timing of Hansen’s decision, suggesting the speculation will be a debilitating distraction for the All Blacks.
Woodward is, always has been, a Hall of Fame mischief maker, and it’s hard not to think that what he’s really doing here is offering up another reason why it will be a colossal failure if England can’t achieve what he did and come home with the Cup.
Or more bluntly, another England coach who wasn’t as good as him. Which, no matter how patriotic Clive may be, would suit him and his legacy just fine.
The All Blacks will hardly have noticed. Their own legacy is what 2019 is about.
Now can someone tell that elephant to wait outside.