EDITOR’S LETTER

Three of the top five ranked teams will be heading home after the quarterfinals at the World Cup. And the All Blacks could be one of them.

That is simply a fact. A cold, harsh reality the All Blacks and New Zealanders will need to prepare themselves for.

As much as I have changed my view on how the All Blacks could go in France - more on that soon - the fact is only two of those five top teams can make the semifinals.

For Ireland, Scotland and South Africa who are in pool B along with Tonga and Romania - one of them won’t even make the quarterfinals.

Those that do have (likely) dates with New Zealand and France who are in pool A with Italy, Namibia and Uruguay.

The lopsided nature of the draw is because it is done far too early (it should have been done after this year’s Six Nations) but it is what it is, and at least the All Blacks know what is in front of them.

There are no Pacific Island teams in the top 10 which goes on to include England, Australia, Argentina, Wales and Japan - but all three of Samoa, Fiji and Tonga are capable of upsets.

Samoa have a strong history of defying the odds at World Cups and in a pool that includes England, Japan and Argentina, should back themselves to repeat history.

Fiji are a very good chance to make the quarterfinals as they are with a woefully out of sorts Wales in pool C, along with Australia, Portugal and Georgia - who are also capable of upsetting the odds.

Tonga will have a tougher time of it but they have benefited from the revised eligibility laws and will field a team sprinkled with former All Blacks and Wallabies.

So this World Cup is a mad shambles from a draw perspective with France and New Zealand really the only two teams who should feel confident of making the quarterfinals.

Indeed, I think those two teams, who open the tournament on Friday September 8 (Saturday morning in New Zealand), will meet again in the final.

That’s not a view I held a year ago but Jason Ryan’s impact on the All Blacks pack has been so profound I now think they can go all the way.

The All Blacks have always had the backs, but those talents have been muted in recent years by the inability of the pack to deliver quality, front foot ball.

It’s meant the All Blacks have been too lateral, too keen to go wide, before they are going forward.

That has changed under Ryan. The scrum is excellent, the lineout effective and the defence of the lineout drive a lot better. Around the paddock the black pack is more direct, and when they don’t have the ball, the defence is sound.

If there is a minor criticism it’s that when they are on the opposition’s goal line there is too much of a focus on the forwards bashing their way over when the backs are ready to have a crack.

But in general, the performance of the black pack is hugely encouraging.

There is good depth now with the emergence of Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax and Samisoni Taukei’aho in the front row and Josh Lord at lock.

If there is one desire I have it’s that Scott Barrett stays at lock. He is a good blindside but he is a great lock.

Ian Foster has to put people in their best positions and that means Barrett at lock with probably Sam Whitelock on the bench. What that means is that the All Blacks have a hugely experienced man coming on late in tests to “close out” games. How good is that!

The same call for putting people in their best positions applies to the backs, too, as All Blacks coaches have a history of brain explosions at World Cups.

Foster is spoilt for choice in the backs but he has to be clear, decisive and smart in his selections. Fullback and first five are the biggest ‘headaches’ as he has Richie Mo’unga, Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett (Jordie is a second five, leave him there), Will Jordan and potentially Shaun Stevenson to pick from.

It’s a wonderful problem to have but Foster needs to pick his back three and No10 and play them. No chopping and changing.

History also shows that at the World Cups the All Blacks have won, and almost won in 1995, the top team has (barring injuries in

2011 and 2015) played in all but one of the pool games and then through the quarterfinals.

It’s a proven path to success and one that, should Foster follow it, I reckon will see the

All Blacks make the final - against France.