Several economic pointers due for release this week

THE Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion being released today is expected to provide a reliable guide to economic trends but it is not the only data out this week being watched closely.

At the second Dairy Global-Trade auction early tomorrow (NZ time), prices are expected to strengthen on January’s weak rates.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) quarterly survey provided deeper insights into business confidence than provided by such measures as the ANZ business confidence survey.

Headline confidence dipped over the final months of the year. Confidence was dented by several events, including Donald Trump’s election in the United States, former prime minister John Key’s surprise resignation and the severe Kaikoura earthquakes, which disrupted activity throughout much of central New Zealand.

While confidence fell, Mr Tuffley expected actual activity would have held up ‘‘relatively well’’. That was likely to show up in measures such as domestic trading activity and employment over the past few months.

He would also focus on labour market indicators within the QSBO, in particular to the difficulties in finding labour.

After a weak start to 2017, dairy prices were expected to rebound in the auction this week. Current futures pricing suggested whole milk powder prices would be around 1% to 3% higher.

‘‘All up, we expect global dairy prices to remain firm for the remainder of the season, reflecting weakening global and New Zealand dairy supply.’’

Real Estate Institute of New Zealand figures were due this morning and Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said the data would provide evidence to support or otherwise claims the Auckland housing market had slowed substantially in recent months.

The Chinese economy would be the focus late in the week. Economic growth data for the December 2016 quarter was scheduled for release on Friday afternoon, just 15 days from the end of the period it covered, he said.

In the first threequarters of 2016, China recorded growth of 6.7% and it was likely there would be another result close to that figure.

‘‘While that would be a great outcome by Western standards, this has been the slowest pace of growth in China since March 2009.’’

The Chinese economy is generally expected to moderate further in the coming year and the International Monetary Fund forecasts suggested growth would slow to 6.2% this calendar year, Mr Timms said.

At the same time, the latest Chinese monthly activity reports, including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment — all for December — were scheduled.

The European Central Bank would hold its first meeting of the year on Thursday but no major moves were likely. In December, the bank extended the quantitative easing (QE) programme by nine months and allowed the purchase of bonds yielding less than the deposit rate of 0.4%.

The day before the bank met, December inflation was expected for the euro zone.