Leaders face another weekend in limbo
WELLINGTON: National and Labour will be made to sweat until at least Monday while they wait for New Zealand First to decide on whom to support in a coalition government.
National leader Bill English will stay in Wellington over the weekend, but Labour leader Jacinda Ardern is heading home to Auckland.
After a week of negotiation talks with each party, Winston Peters has confirmed his party board would meet MPs in Wellington on Monday.
A decision would be made at that meeting and announced as soon as possible, Mr Peters said.
Board members had booked to stay Monday night if the meeting stretched on.
However, Mr Peters indicated getting an agreement should not take too long.
‘‘We know time’s of the essence . . . If we’ve done enough work, the consideration that happens on Monday should take far less than the time we’re doing [with the work] we’re involved with now,’’ he said.
‘‘That includes doing the fiscals as far as we can go and making sure that we will have a very clear idea of what we need to inquire of the other parties to make sure there is no doubt as to the sum of our discussions.’’
It is likely public departments such as Treasury are now involved in checking costings used in negotiations, a process that is allowed under the Cabinet Manual.
A National spokeswoman said: ‘‘Our offices will be in contact as necessary.’’
Ms Ardern arrived at Parliament yesterday saying only that Labour had a process it would follow.
Labour needs the support of NZ First and the Green Party to form a Government, but is nego tiating separate agreements with each party.
It had wanted the Greens formally on board before Mr Peters and his team make their final decision, so they can guarantee they have the numbers.
The Greens have been on standby to conduct a special meeting of delegates via teleconference to get the at least 7% accord needed to sign off the agreement.
Greens leader James Shaw said on Thursday they would prefer a coalition deal to a confidence and supply arrangement, but ‘‘we’ve just got to see how things go’’. — NZME
WITH the focus this week being on Winston Peters, coalition talks, and missed deadlines, it has been easy to forget that politics could be turned on its head in a few short days.
Jacinda Ardern could be prime minister and drawing up her new cabinet.
Peters will be a footnote to the 2017 election. The story for the next three years will be about New Zealand’s new young prime minister, the Trudeau of the South Pacific.
Who put her there will be irrelevant unless things go wrong, and then Peters’ role in her elevation will be remembered. That’s the only time the ‘‘coalition of losers’’ will give David Seymour any more headlines.
If things go right, it will be Ardern’s success, not Peters’ and not New Zealand First’s.
She will be preparing to make her first overseas trip as prime minister to Apec in Vietnam next month.
She and David Parker will work with outgoing Trade Minister Todd McClay (in the national interest) to make a good show of wanting to change the objectionable parts of TPP without actually withdrawing from it — she does not want to start her premiership with the summer of discontent.
She will be a more conscientious senior partner to NZ First and the Greens than Helen Clark or John Key were to their junior partners. She will never use the term senior or junior.
She will refer to their positive role every week and be so inclusive in her running of government that New Zealand First will feel smothered. Helen Clark will school her in the art of strong leadership, not suckingup leadership.
Someone with more interpersonal skills than Peters will ask her to back off a bit, until the next time NZ First feels excluded, then it will be back to inclusive government.
Peters initially won’t mind all the attention going to Ardern because he thinks it will only last for six months.
It will not do his party any harm with women and after the hype has died down, he can make serious progress on making NZ First the party of regional New Zealand, and regaining Northland for NZ First.
The job would be easier, however, if Shane Jones and Ron Mark could be relied on to reach a state of detente. Any fracture in party disciplines or the tiniest crack would be exploited by National.
If the National and Labour agreements are similar in the magnitude of gains, there are many more apparent reasons from a NZ First perspective to install a new party than a stagnating fourthterm National government.
It would be the most obvious way of delivering change he promised at the election, even if it is underpinned by uncertainty. It would bring excitement back to politics.
But to rephrase Peters’ nowin lament of last Sunday, it could also be a loselose choice for NZ First.
Peters will not just be considering which party would be best to lead the Government. He will also be considering which party would make the most dangerous opposition to NZ First over the next three years.
That danger will exist for NZ First no matter what arrangement it opts for, full coalition, ministers outside cabinet or sitting on the cross benches.
Labour is clearly going to be a stronger force under Ardern whether in government or opposition but it would be unlikely to target NZ First in a toxic way because it might still need it as a future coalition partner — including during this term of government if the alternative collapsed.
A certain consequence of installing Labour would be turning National into a strong opposition and one intent on destroying NZ First.
Bill English would announce his retirement from politics, throwing the party into a temporary state of turmoil as it held its second leadership contest in a year.
But the factors that normally demoralise opposition parties would be absent.
Its morale would be high even if its moral authority is nonexistent. It had more of a triumph than a defeat at the election.
Its front bench would know more than the ministers replacing them.
And any downturn in the economic indicators, whether or not they were of domestic origin, would be an advantage to National.
The choice for NZ First is a lot harder than in 1996 because it has the benefit of hindsight. Its MPs are awake to the pressures that could bear down upon a small party in the next three years.
The party has to consider its political survival as well as the quality of the two deals on offer.
National would be a better coalition partner than it was in 1996 but it could be harder for the party to forge a visible and positive role in a fourthterm government.
NZ First could have a stronger and more visible role in a Labourled government but run a greater risk of being annihilated in 2020.
NZ First could be in for a tough weekend.