Warmerthanusual autumn likely: Niwa

TEMPERATURES in Otago and Southland are ‘‘very likely’’ to be above average over the next three months, Niwa climate scientists have predicted.

A Niwa spokesman said La Nina’s influence would wane between March and May, and New Zealand’s regional climate was expected to be driven by the warmerthanaverage waters in the Tasman Sea and the southwest Pacific Ocean.

It would influence surface air temperatures and the likelihood of significant rain events.

For inland Otago, Southland and the West Coast, there was a 60% chance that temperatures would be above average.

Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows were ‘‘about equally likely’’ to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35% chance).

Temperatures in the coastal Otago area were also ‘‘very likely’’ to be above average (70% chance), and rainfall totals were ‘‘about equally likely’’ to be in the above nor mal range (40% chance) or near normal range (35% chance).

Soil moisture levels and river flows were most likely to be in the above normal range (55% chance), he said.

As autumn progressed, frosts might occur in cooler parts of Otago and Southland from time to time, he said.

The longterm forecast is the result of specialist judgements by Niwa’s climate scientists, who take into account observations of atmospheric and ocean conditions and output from global and local climate models.