Fast climate change action urged
WELLINGTON: A rapid transition to electric vehicles, sustained treeplanting on a scale seen only once before, and major changes to farming methods are the key to New Zealand meeting its obligations to the global pact on climate change, the Productivity Commission says in its final report on becoming a ‘‘lowcarbon economy’’.
Carbon prices of at least $75 a tonne and perhaps higher than $200 a tonne would also be required to spur investment and land use, transport fuel and industrial heat process changes over the next 30 years, the report said, a day after the price of a New Zealand Unit of carbon pushed through the current legislated cap of $25 a tonne for the first time since the emissions trading scheme came into being a decade ago.
Ordered up by the previous government, the report takes into account the current Government’s more ambitious climate change target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, rather than the target of 2100 set by the last National Partyled government.
Starting sooner rather than later is vital for what will be a ‘‘long journey through very uncertain terrain’’, the commission says in its 600plus page report, which covers all sectors of the economy that produce emissions, including agriculture, industrial heat, transport, and waste management.
‘‘Modelling for this inquiry suggests that New Zealand can make the transition by cutting its domestic emissions at costs similar to those likely to be experienced by other developed countries. But the sooner New Zealand begins to reduce its emissions, the less abrupt and costly the transition will be.’’
The three most important changes the commission suggests are:
A transition from fossil fuels to electricity and other lowemissions fuels across the economy, with a ‘‘rapid and comprehensive’’ switch of the light vehicle fleet to electric vehicles (EVs), and a switch away from coal and natural gas for industrial heat, ‘‘particularly for low and medium temperature heat users’’.
‘‘Sustained rates of [forest] planting over the next 30 years, mostly on land currently used for sheep and beef farming, potentially at an annual rate approaching the highest ever recorded [100,000ha in 1994].
‘‘Changes to the structures and methods of agricultural production’’, including more land being used for cropping and horticulture.
As foreshadowed in its interim report, the commission also endorses the key elements of the Net Zero Carbon Bill, at present in development by Climate Change Minister James Shaw, which include legislated greenhouse gas reduction targets, a system of carbon ‘‘budgets’’ to allow progress to be tracked, greater certainty about the supply of NZUs, and an independent Climate Change Commission.