US swing to left in House net positive for NZ: expert
AS the United States’ House of Representatives swings Democratic, New Zealand can hope President Donald Trump will ease attacks on organisations critical for its survival, a local politics expert says.
With some races undecided as the US midterm elections wound down last night, the Democratic Party had seized the House of Representatives from Republicans with 218 seats to 193. The Republicans maintained control of the Senate with 51 to 45 seats.
The house has 435 twoterm seats, all of which were in contest, which each represent populationbased districts across the country.
Only 35 of 100 of the sixterm senate seats were up for grabs, of which there are two in each state.
Democrats also won back many state governor positions from the Republicans’ previous majority of 33 out of 50.
University of Otago politics professor Robert Patman said Mr Trump had attacked international organisations such as the United Nations and World Trade Organisation which were crucial to the prosperity of small countries like New Zealand.
The hope would be with greater scrutiny from the house, those attacks may diminish.
‘‘Although he doesn’t play by rules, he may feel more constrained and resist from undermining institutions which are important for maintaining our trade and diplomatic interests in the world.’’
Some would have expected the Democrats to claw back more power, Prof Patman said.
‘‘It seems as if the Democrats have had quite a lot of opportunities with Mr Trump in the White House.
‘‘My main criticism of the Democrats is they seem to be leaderless.’’
There was a high turnout yesterday, partly due to millennials voting in higher numbers.
Mr Trump’s success could largely be attributed to a strong economy, his ‘‘zero tolerance’’ immigration policy and shrewd manner, Prof Patman said.
However, with control of the house, the Democrats may place more scrutiny on the president.
‘‘What we could expect is a lot more political fire being directed at the White House.’’
WASHINGTON: United States President Donald Trump has described the midterm election results as a ‘‘tremendous success,’’ even as his Republican Party lost control over the House of Representatives.
‘‘Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!’’ the president said on Twitter, his only remarks after projections came in.
The House of Representatives will flip to the control of the Democrats while Trump’s Republicans have retained control over the Senate.
The projections were largely in line with polling ahead of election day yesterday.
The results followed a divisive campaign marked by fierce clashes over race, immigration and other cultural issues.
But with his party losing its House majority, the results represented a bitter setback for Trump after a campaign that became a referendum on his leadership.
With some races still undecided, Democrats appeared headed to a gain of more than 30 seats, well beyond the 23 they needed to claim their first majority in the 435member House in eight years.
Trump spent election night watching returns with family and friends at the White House, his shadow looming large over the results. His closest aides tried to focus him on the positives.
Working on just a few hours’ sleep after a heavy final day of campaigning, Trump spent much of yesterday on the phone, checking in with friends and advisers, talking to state and national Republican Party officials and White House aides to get a picture of what to expect.
Wall Street stock futures and Asian shares lost steam yesterday after the Democrat win boosted its ability to block Trump’s political and economic agenda.
The victory creates a hurdle for Republicans to easily pass legislation through both chambers of Congress, clouding the outlook for some of Trump’s key economic proposals.
The newly empowered House Democrats will now have the ability to investigate Trump’s tax returns, possible business conflicts of interest and allegations involving his 2016 campaign’s links to Russia.
His legislative agenda, including a vague proposal for a middleclass income tax cut, is likely stalled.
One Trump adviser said the president was probably not prepared for the onslaught of investigations that Democrats were likely to launch.
‘‘I don’t think he fully comprehends what this means by giving the gavel to (Democratic House leader) Nancy Pelosi and her cronies,’’ the adviser said, asking to remain unidentified.
Increased support from women, youth and Hispanic voters gave Democrats the boost they needed to take control of the House, according to a Reuters/ Ipsos Election Day poll.
Fiftyfive percent of women said they backed a Democrat for the House this year, compared with 49% who in 2014 said they backed a Democrat in the con gressional midterm elections.
Young voters also swung aggressively towards Democrats. Those aged 18 to 34 backed Democrats by 62% to 34%, a 28percentage point gap.
This was up from 2014, when 54% of young voters backed Democrats and 36% went for Republicans, an 18point gap.
Hispanic voters also favoured Democratic House candidates by 33 percentage points — higher than the 18point gap with Republicans that Democrats enjoyed in 2014, the poll found.
Women will break the current record of 84 serving at the same time in the House.
With ballots still being counted across the US, women have won 75 seats in the House and are assured of victory in nine districts where women are the only majorparty candidates.
From the Women’s March opposing Trump the day after he was inaugurated in January 2017 through a stream of sexual assault accusations later that year that sparked the #MeToo movement, outrage and organising by women have defined Democratic politics for the midterm elections.
More than 230 women, many of them firsttime candidates, were on the ballot papers in House races.
Among the most notable new female House members are Alexandria OcasioCortez (29), the youngest woman elected to Congress; Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, the first Muslim women elected to the House; Sharice Davids, a lesbian, lawyer and former mixed martial arts fighter; and Debra Haaland, the first Native American woman.