Surprise in Andalusia
The far right has tasted success in Andalusia as the popular vote fragments, report Ingrid Melander and Belen Carreno, of Reuters.
VICTORIOUS rightwingers and disappointed socialists agreed on one thing in Spain last week — that politics in the country would not be the same again after the surprise election in Andalusia’s regional parliament of 12 farright lawmakers.
BUOYANT rightwingers and downcast Socialists agreed on one thing last Monday in Spain: politics will not be the same again after the surprise election in Andalusia’s regional parliament of 12 farright lawmakers.
Andalusia began a busy electoral season on December 2 by delivering the Socialists an unexpected blow and handing over to the farright Vox a regional kingmaker role long unthinkable in a country with memories of military dictatorship still acute.
With a spate of local, regional and European elections slated for May, parties jostled to take the lead in the changing landscape after the inconclusive outcome in Andalusia, where Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists could lose control.
‘‘This is just the beginning,’’ Pablo Casado, the new, national leader of the conservative People’s Party (PP), told a news conference.
‘‘Spain has had enough.’’ Lessons from Andalusia’s vote were that the farright surge, an increasingly fragmented political scene and deepening polarisation, especially over matters of regional autonomy and immigration, were here to stay, analysts said.
‘‘What happened on Sunday changes everything,’’ said Narciso Michavila, head of GAD3 pollsters, who had forecast the election of Vox lawmakers but said the fact that as many as 12 got seats in Andalusia’s assembly was an unexpected gamechanger.
Surveys show voters on both sides of the leftright divide used the Andalusia election to send Sanchez messages on national politics — ranging from his overtures to Catalan nationalists that some judge to be too lenient to a desire for snap general elections, according to Michavila.
A senior Socialist official from Andalusia concurred. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he blamed what he called the Government’s ‘‘tepidness’’ on Catalonia for keeping the party’s voters at home in a region that was usually a party stronghold.
Sanchez has said he is open to a referendum on greater autonomy for Catalonia and has promised to lay out detailed plans in Parliament this week.
Catalonian nationalists’ bid for independence is a very divisive issue in Spain.
‘‘What happened here will be decisive for the rest of Spain,’’ Vox leader Santiago Abascal told a news conference.
He projected fresh ambitions for a party that so far operated on the fringe of Spain’s politics but benefited from fatigue with mainstream parties, fears for Spain’s unity and about immigration. Andalusia has borne the brunt of a migrant wave from North Africa across the Strait of Gibraltar.
Vox’s electoral success was the first for the farright since
Spain’s return to democracy in the late 1970s.
But the antiimmigration party, which opposes giving regions more power, can now target wins in more regions and municipalities when Spaniards go back to the polls in May 2019.
‘‘I am convinced Vox can get people elected in all the municipalities and regions where it will present candidates,’’ said Pablo Simon, a political science professor at Madrid’s Carlos III University.
‘‘Spain now has a multiparty system with a far right like other European countries.’’
An important question will be if, and when, Sanchez, who leads a minority government, could call early general elections, ahead of the 2020 scheduled date.
Vox vicepresident Victor Gonzalez said he was in no rush, as he was convinced his party was only starting to grow.
‘‘If there are elections now we would have fewer seats than in 2020,’’ he said.
There are still many unknowns, not the least of which being who will eventually govern Andalusia, with negotiations just starting.