Key issues in 2020 NZ election

Presidential politics

Despite the policies in the party platforms, modern elections distil to a battle of leaders — on this front, Labour can be most confident.

In Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand has a modern, likeable, capable prime minister. Her effort to soothe a hurting nation following the March 15 terrorist attack was authentic and appreciated by New Zealanders.

For National, the task is to diminish her standing. The alternative prime minister, Simon Bridges, regularly paints Ms Ardern as a ditherer, as all compassion and no action, and incapable of landing major policies.

So far it is not working; preferred leader tracking polls have Ms Ardern well in front, and the electorate is far from enamoured by the idea of a prime minister Bridges.

The infrastructure deficit

National’s most effective line of attack on Labour has been on infrastructure.

Ms Ardern’s government has abandoned a pledge to build 100,000 homes in 10 years — KiwiBuild has fallen embarrassingly short of targets. Roads and transport links, particularly in Auckland, fall well below expectations.

National’s brand on delivery is strong. Labour’s counter, a trite ‘‘nine years of neglect’’ referring to the previous Government, does not bite, but a $12 billion infrastructure announcement today aims to address this.

Inequality bites

Fiscally and economically, New Zealand is in rude health. Growth is strong: major indicators are above OECD averages.

Bumper government surpluses have allowed for investment, but many New Zealanders are being left behind. Hardship grant applications are at all time highs. The Government has tinkered with family support and tax settings rather than increasing welfare, despite calls to do so.

Poverty also feeds another redhot issue: the rise of gang activity, particularly in the regions, which Mr Bridges has made his signature issue as leader.

What’s Winston planning?

Campaigns always throw up twists in the tail, and you can be sure Winston Peters has a few planned.

The wily mainstay of New Zealand politics since his election more than 40 years ago, Mr Peters loves to take centre stage and antagonise.

Despite opposing views on immigration and social issues, his New Zealand First party’s decision to back Labour handed it government — where NZ First’s presence is a moderating force on the otherwise centreleft Government.

However, polling is not good for Mr Peters’ populists; the party needs to poll above 5% to retain its numbers in Parliament and it is skirting dangerously close to that figure. Expect some vintage Winston this year.

Climate change

The issue that has played a part in every Australian election, and in the demise of every political leader — Labor and Liberal — since, will barely rate a mention on the New Zealand campaign trail.

Labour and the Greens will campaign on their achievements but there is no battleground issue here as National’s decision to support the Government’s Zero Carbon Bill through Parliament neutralised the issue politically.

Farmers will protest at new obligations to curb emissions but they are not stringent.