The American view

SOMETIME within the next few weeks, the Federal Government will have to make arguably the most farreaching policy decision since World War2. The strategy of social isolation to mitigate transmission of the novel coronavirus has been in place for less than a month, and President Donald Trump is now suggesting most restrictions should be lifted by Easter, April 12, although no official decision has been made.

So far, the results of social isolation have been less promising than hoped. In early March, the United States had about 1000 cases (three per 1 million in population) of Covid19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. That number now is now over 60,000. In early March, the US had fewer than 25 Covid19 deaths. Now, that number is over 900. Depending on the extent of unrecognised community spread, it could be plausibly argued that social isolation needs more time to show results; without it, things might be much worse.

Consider the quandary our decisionmakers face: If social isolation were unarguably effective, or even if not, we could continue, perhaps even ramp up measures, so long as doing so did not result in a visegrip on the economy. But unless the number of cases levels quickly, an economic recession is likely. If we intensify measures, a depression — something few Americans remember — becomes possible, creating a far more complex public health equation. Desperate times call for desperate measures.